Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) — 2025-10-14

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• AXSUSDT traded lower, closing at $1.735 after a volatile 24-hour session with a high of $1.794 and a low of $1.664.
• Price declined 3.8% from the prior 24-hour close, showing bearish momentum and signs of capitulation in late trading.
• Volume surged near the end, with ~75,318.59 units traded at the 13:45 ET candle, indicating a potential reversal attempt.
• Bollinger Bands widened significantly after 5:00 ET, reflecting heightened volatility and potential for a breakout.
• RSI dropped below 40, indicating weakening momentum with signs of a short-term oversold condition forming.

Price Action and Key Levels

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at $1.752 on 2025-10-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $1.735 on 2025-10-14 at the same time, reflecting a 24-hour decline. The pair reached a high of $1.794 and a low of $1.664, a $0.13 range, indicating heightened volatility. Price appears to be consolidating near the 1.70–1.75 support cluster, which had previously acted as resistance. A bearish engulfing pattern formed around 13:45 ET after a sharp reversal from $1.664 to $1.661, suggesting short-term bearish continuation is likely.

Moving Averages and Momentum

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downward trend. Daily averages (50/100/200) also reflect a bearish alignment with AXSUSDT trading below all three. MACD turned negative after 8:00 ET, confirming bearish momentum, while RSI dropped into oversold territory near 30, hinting at possible short-term reversal. However, a sustained move above 1.75 may indicate a deeper pullback is forming.

Volatility and Fibonacci Levels

Bollinger Bands expanded to their widest in 24 hours during the 5:00–6:00 ET timeframe, indicating high volatility and potential for a directional move. Price currently sits just above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the recent $1.664–$1.794 range at approximately $1.71, suggesting it could act as a key support level in the near term. A break below this would likely target the 78.6% level at $1.64.

Volume and Turnover Insights

Total 24-hour volume amounted to 1,162,187 units, with notional turnover at $1,978,766. Volume spiked sharply near the close, especially during the 13:45–14:00 ET timeframe. Despite heavy selling pressure, the price failed to make new lows, suggesting potential accumulation. Divergence between volume and price movement in the final hours implies a short-term reversal is more probable than a continuation of the downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis

A standard RSI-based backtest could be applied using RSI < 30 as the oversold trigger, followed by a 10-day-hold exit. Given AXSUSDT’s recent RSI dip below 30 and the high volume during the rebound from $1.664, this suggests a potential short-term bounce. A backtest using this strategy over the last two years may reveal that AXSUSDT historically experiences a 40–50% success rate when entering positions on RSI < 30 signals, with the strongest results seen in low-volatility markets. However, recent volatility and broader market risk appetite should temper expectations.