Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) on 2025-10-08

• Price opened at 2.16, reached 2.184, and closed near 2.157 amid bearish consolidation.
• RSI suggests overbought conditions earlier, then moved into neutral territory.
• Volatility spiked after 20:00 ET, with a sharp pullback from 2.175 to 2.138.
• Bollinger Bands show recent reversion to the mean, with price inside the lower band.
• Volume peaked at ~90k at 3:30 ET but failed to confirm a breakout, suggesting bearish divergence.

24-Hour Summary

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at 2.16 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 2.184, dipped to a 24-hour low of 2.131, and closed at 2.157 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-08. Total volume amounted to 90,924.72, and notional turnover was approximately $190,200. The pair experienced a volatile bearish pullback after a short-term overbought phase, with price struggling to reclaim key resistance levels above 2.16.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern from 17:15 to 17:30 ET, followed by a long lower shadow indicating rejection at 2.184. Key resistance lies around 2.16–2.17, with support at 2.145–2.15. A doji formed at 3:45 ET, signaling indecision near 2.131. A potential bullish reversal may form near 2.13–2.14 if buyers emerge.

Moving Averages

The 15-minute 20SMA and 50SMA both trended downward through the session, with the 50SMA crossing under the 20SMA in the afternoon, confirming bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50DMA is near 2.16, the 100DMA near 2.17, and the 200DMA at 2.18, suggesting that any move above 2.175 would need to clear major long-term resistance.

MACD & RSI

MACD showed bearish divergence as price peaked at 2.184 but failed to make a higher histogram. RSI reached 62 early in the session but declined to ~47 by 2:00 AM, indicating a shift from overbought to neutral. A potential bearish crossover in the RSI and MACD could signal further downside if 2.145 is tested again.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded in the early hours, with price dropping below the lower band by 3:30 ET. This reversion may signal oversold conditions near 2.131. If price rebounds and moves above the midband, traders may see a short-term bounce, but a move above the upper band remains unlikely without a catalyst.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to ~90k at 3:30 ET, coinciding with the drop to 2.131, but failed to confirm a breakout to the upside. Notional turnover also increased during this move, suggesting significant liquidation pressure. A follow-through increase in volume with a price rebound above 2.153 would be a positive sign for bulls.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15-minute swing from 2.131 to 2.184 shows key levels at 38.2% (2.161) and 61.8% (2.154). Price has spent time near the 61.8% level in the morning and afternoon, suggesting it’s a potential pivot. A breakdown below 2.145 would target the 50% retracement at 2.15 and then 38.2% at 2.161 on a rebound.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed Fibonacci levels and the bearish divergence in MACD and RSI, a potential backtesting strategy could be to short AXSUSDT on a break below 2.145 with a stop above the 61.8% retracement at 2.154. The target would be 2.12–2.13, aligning with the 50% and 38.2% levels. This approach would capitalize on the recent bearish momentum and key support zones identified in the 15-minute and daily charts.