Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) - 2025-10-06

• Price opened at $2.244 and traded in a $2.24–$2.25 range before breaking lower, closing at $2.208.
• A bearish trend emerged with key support around $2.17–$2.19 and resistance near $2.22–$2.24.
• High volatility and volume spikes suggest increased selling pressure, with price falling below key moving averages.
• RSI entered oversold territory briefly, while MACD showed bearish divergence in the late session.
• Bollinger Bands expanded through the session, with price testing the lower band multiple times, indicating a directional bias.

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at $2.244 on 2025-10-05 12:00 ET and closed at $2.208 on 2025-10-06 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was $2.24 to $2.25. Total volume reached 309,903.38, with a notional turnover of approximately $686,900. Price action displayed a clear bearish bias with several bearish reversals and a breakdown from key intraday resistance.

Structure & Formations

The price of AXSUSDT displayed a strong bearish bias over the 24-hour period, with a breakdown from a key resistance level near $2.22. A series of bearish engulfing patterns were observed during the early hours of the session, signaling increased selling pressure. Additionally, a key support level was tested at $2.19–$2.18, which provided temporary stability but failed to prevent further downside. A doji pattern formed around $2.184, indicating indecision, while a strong bearish reversal was seen from $2.206 to $2.194.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price has been trading significantly below both the 20-period (2.21) and 50-period (2.22) moving averages, confirming the bearish momentum. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are aligned in a descending order, reinforcing the bearish trend. Price is currently below all major moving averages, suggesting a continuation of the downtrend could be likely in the near term.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory throughout the session, with a bearish crossover occurring in the early hours. The histogram showed a consistent decline in bullish momentum, particularly after 19:30 ET, when a strong bearish move began. RSI reached oversold levels near 30 for a short period but failed to show a strong rebound, indicating a potential continuation of the bearish trend. The momentum appears to be favoring the bears, with no significant signs of a reversal forming.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands showed a significant expansion during the session, with price testing the lower band multiple times. The volatility spike began around 19:00 ET and continued through the session, aligning with the bearish breakouts. Price remained within the lower half of the bands for much of the session, reinforcing the bearish pressure. This pattern suggests a continuation of the downward bias, with the potential for further price compression.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply during the bearish breakout from the $2.22–$2.24 range, with the largest volume candle occurring at 19:30 ET (22,859.7 units). Notional turnover also showed a significant increase during this period, confirming the bearish move. The divergence between price and volume was not evident, as volume increased in line with the downward move. However, the lack of a strong rebound in volume despite a brief RSI oversold condition suggests weak buying interest and continued bearish bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the price tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $2.21–$2.22 before breaking lower. The 38.2% level at $2.19 failed to provide strong support. On the daily chart, the price is now approaching the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $2.17, which may serve as a potential short-term support. A breakdown below this level could open the door to further bearish movement toward $2.15. Traders should monitor these key levels for potential turning points.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy described involves entering short positions on bearish engulfing patterns when price breaks below key Fibonacci levels and confirms with a close below the 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart. Stop-loss placement would be set slightly above the 38.2% Fibonacci level, with a target set at the 61.8% level. Given today’s price action, this strategy would have triggered a short signal at $2.22 with a stop above $2.24 and a target near $2.19. This approach appears well-suited for a volatile bearish trend, particularly when combined with strong volume confirmation.