Market Overview for Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Price opened at 2.294 and dropped to 2.25, rebounding to close near 2.264.
• Key 15-min support at 2.25–2.26 with resistance at 2.30–2.31.
• RSI and MACD signal moderate bearish momentum with potential for consolidation.
• Volatility increased after 19:30 ET, with volume spiking near $190,000.
• Bollinger Bands show moderate expansion, suggesting a period of uncertainty.

Opening Summary

Axie Infinity/Tether (AXSUSDT) opened at 2.294 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 2.339 before falling to a 24-hour low of 2.25. The pair closed at 2.264 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-04. Total traded volume was approximately 629,900 units, with a notional turnover of about $1,384,500.

Structure & Formations

The price structure of the past 24 hours suggests a bearish sentiment after a brief rally to 2.339. A key support level appears to be forming around 2.25–2.26, confirmed by several candlesticks closing near that range. A doji formed near 2.262 at 02:15 ET, suggesting indecision. A potential bullish engulfing pattern is forming near 2.26–2.27, which could trigger a rebound if confirmed.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are both in a downward bias, reflecting bearish momentum. The 20SMA is currently at approximately 2.303 and the 50SMA at 2.311. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period MAs suggest a slightly bearish bias, with the 200SMA acting as a potential support at 2.28.

MACD & RSI

The 12-26 MACD line crossed below the signal line near 2.31, indicating a bearish crossover. The histogram is in negative territory and widening, reinforcing the downtrend. RSI remains below 50, suggesting moderate bearish momentum. It briefly dipped into oversold territory below 30 during the 03:15–03:30 ET period, hinting at potential short-term rebounds.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show moderate volatility expansion during the 19:30–00:45 ET timeframe. Price has been oscillating near the lower band for most of the day, indicating bearish pressure. A breakout above the upper band (~2.304) would suggest a potential reversal, but confirmation is needed on the next few candles.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume peaked at 62,896.81 at 17:15 ET, during a sharp pullback to 2.261. Notional turnover was highest at that time as well, confirming the price action. However, volume dipped significantly after 05:00 ET despite a slight rebound in price, indicating a potential divergence. The volume profile suggests a lack of strong conviction from buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the 2.25–2.339 swing, key levels include 2.286 (38.2%) and 2.272 (61.8%). Price has bounced off the 61.8% level multiple times, suggesting strong resistance. If it breaks below 2.25, a deeper correction toward 2.22–2.23 may be expected.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtest strategy could look to enter long positions on a bullish engulfing or doji formation near the 2.26–2.27 support level, with stop-loss placed below 2.25. A short position may be considered if a breakdown below 2.25 is confirmed with high volume. Take-profit levels could be set at 2.28 (RSI overbought) and 2.304 (Bollinger upper band). This strategy aligns with the observed volatility and price consolidation patterns, aiming to capture short-term mean reversion or continuation.