Market Overview for Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) – October 6, 2025

• Price drifted lower during a volatile 24-hour session with a key breakdown below 2.43e-06.
• Turnover surged during a late-night rebound attempt, but failed to confirm a reversal.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near 2.44e-06, signaling potential continuation of the downtrend.
• Bollinger Bands constricted mid-session, followed by a sharp expansion during the breakdown.
• Volume spiked at 19:45 and 05:00 ET, but price failed to hold key levels, indicating weak conviction.

Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) opened at 2.43e-06 on October 5 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 2.55e-06, and closed at 2.44e-06 on October 6 at 12:00 ET, with a low of 2.36e-06. The 24-hour trading session saw total volume of 68,736.34 and turnover of approximately $169.53M, based on the weighted average price.

Structure & Formations

The price of AXLBTC exhibited a bearish bias over the 24-hour period, with a key breakdown occurring around 19:45 ET when it fell below 2.43e-06 on high volume. A bearish engulfing pattern formed in the following session, suggesting a continuation of the downward trend. A key support level appears to have been tested at 2.4e-06, with a brief rejection observed. A doji appeared near 2.4e-06 at 23:45 ET, indicating indecision. No strong bullish reversal patterns emerged, and the price failed to hold above 2.44e-06 after a mid-morning rebound.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA crossed below the 50-period MA in early morning hours, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 50-period MA was around 2.44e-06, and the 100-period MA aligned closely with it. On the daily chart, the 200-period MA was above the 50-period MA, indicating a broader bearish trend. The price remained below both the 50 and 200-period MAs, suggesting continuation of the downtrend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed below the signal line in late evening hours, confirming a bearish turn in momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30 at 20:15 ET, but failed to produce a strong rebound, suggesting weak conviction in the reversal. RSI later stabilized around 40–45, signaling a period of consolidation. MACD showed negative divergence with price during the morning rebound, indicating bearish bias may persist.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted in the middle of the session, with price oscillating between the mid-2.4e-06 range. A sharp breakdown occurred at the end of the session, pushing price below the lower band. The move below 2.4e-06 marked a clear bearish breakout, with price continuing to trade at a distance from the upper band. Volatility increased significantly after the breakdown, with the bands expanding.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply at 19:45 ET during the breakdown below 2.43e-06, with over 4,115.22 units traded at 2.38e-06. Another large volume spike occurred at 05:00 ET during a rebound attempt above 2.43e-06, but price failed to hold the level, indicating weak bullish conviction. Turnover mirrored volume patterns, with the highest turnover occurring during the 5:00 ET rebound. A divergence between rising price and declining turnover was observed in the morning hours, suggesting the uptrend lacked strong backing.

Fibonacci Retracements

The recent swing from 2.55e-06 to 2.36e-06 saw a key 61.8% retracement at 2.44e-06, where price found resistance and failed to break through. A 38.2% retracement at 2.48e-06 provided temporary support during the late-night rebound. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement of a broader bearish move may be forming near 2.42e-06, with further consolidation expected before a potential follow-through.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focuses on identifying strong bearish engulfing patterns near key moving average levels, such as the 50-period MA, and using volume confirmation to filter signals. A long-term position is taken when price breaks above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement with high turnover, while short positions are initiated after confirmed breakdowns with volume spikes and bearish divergence in the MACD and RSI. This approach aims to capture both countertrend bounces and trend-following moves based on clear technical signals observed in the 24-hour data.