Market Overview for Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC): October 3, 2025

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• Price action on AXLBTC remained contained within a tight range, fluctuating between $2.43e-06 and $2.55e-06.
• A consolidation pattern emerged with several doji and sideways movement, signaling indecision.
• Volatility contracted during the session, with no clear breakout above or below key levels.
• Notional turnover was uneven, with notable spikes during mid-session and overnight hours.
• RSI indicated no overbought or oversold conditions, suggesting a continuation of the range.

Price and Volume Summary

Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) opened at $2.44e-06 on October 2, 2025, at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $2.55e-06, and settled at $2.43e-06 by 12:00 ET on October 3. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 93,433.93, with a notional turnover of $22.87. The pair displayed a consolidative pattern with a mix of indecisive and bullish candlesticks, but no breakout was confirmed.

Structure & Formations

Price action on AXLBTC remained range-bound, oscillating between key support at $2.43e-06 and resistance at $2.55e-06. A doji formed at $2.51e-06 during the early part of the session, indicating a potential reversal or consolidation. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged at $2.45e-06–$2.48e-06 during the overnight hours, suggesting a possible short-term rebound, but this was not followed through. A bearish harami pattern also appeared near the session’s high, signaling caution ahead.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed within the consolidation range, indicating an undefined trend. The 50-period moving average currently sits at $2.46e-06, just above the current price. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages show a slightly bullish alignment, with the 100-period line at $2.45e-06 and the 200-period line at $2.44e-06. This suggests a neutral to mildly bullish bias for the longer term.

MACD and RSI

MACD remained near the zero line, with the signal line moving in parallel—indicating no strong momentum. RSI hovered around 50 for the majority of the session, confirming the lack of strong directional bias. There were brief excursions above 60 and below 40, but these were not sustained, and no overbought or oversold conditions materialized. This suggests continued consolidation with no clear trend.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a contraction in volatility as the session progressed, particularly between 4:00 AM and 10:00 AM ET. Price action remained within the bands for most of the session, with a brief test of the upper band at $2.55e-06 and a lower band test at $2.43e-06. The contraction in volatility may set the stage for a breakout, but one has yet to materialize.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the most recent swing high at $2.55e-06 and low at $2.43e-06, key retracement levels include 38.2% at $2.49e-06 and 61.8% at $2.46e-06. Price action frequently touched the 61.8% level, indicating it may act as support or resistance moving forward. The 38.2% level is likely to see renewed attention in the next 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis

For a potential backtesting strategy, one could consider a breakout strategy using the 20-period moving average as a trigger when price closes above or below the 61.8% Fibonacci level. This strategy could be further refined by incorporating a Bollinger Band breakout filter and confirming with a bullish or bearish engulfing pattern. Stop-loss placement near the 38.2% retracement or a recent swing low/high could help manage risk. Given the current consolidation pattern, the strategy may benefit from a time filter to avoid false signals during low volatility periods.