Market Overview for Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) – 24-Hour Summary

• Price declined from 2.79e-06 to 2.64e-06, showing bearish momentum with a -5.32% close-to-open drop.
• Volume spiked at 32173.82 and 12475.61 during major selloffs, confirming bearish pressure.
• RSI remains below 40, indicating moderate oversold conditions with potential for a bounce.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, suggesting possible mean reversion.
• A bearish engulfing pattern formed early in the session, reinforcing bearish bias.

At 12:00 ET on September 25, 2025, Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) opened at 2.79e-06, hit a high of 2.79e-06, and a low of 2.6e-06, closing at 2.64e-06. Total volume was 188,186.23, and turnover was $499.92. The pair has shown strong bearish momentum, with price falling from its 12-hour high to near its 24-hour low, suggesting increased selling pressure. This was supported by volume surges during key selloffs.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern on the 15-minute chart included a bearish engulfing pattern in the early session and a series of bearish confirmation candles, especially between 17:00 and 18:45 ET. A doji formed around 19:45 ET as price briefly paused near 2.74e-06. Key support levels appear at 2.65e-06, 2.62e-06, and 2.6e-06, with 2.64e-06 acting as a recent floor. Resistance is likely to remain dormant at 2.74e-06 and 2.76e-06, where price stalled multiple times.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are currently bearish, with price closing well below both. On the daily timeframe, the 50-period moving average is near 2.74e-06, suggesting the 200-period is likely even higher, reinforcing that the pair is in a bearish trend. Price appears to have broken below the 100-period moving average as well, indicating further downside could be likely.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned bearish with a declining trend in bullish momentum. The RSI is currently at 34, signaling oversold conditions. However, this is not yet at extreme levels to suggest a reversal. A rebound in the next 24 hours is plausible, but only if RSI breaks above 40 without a strong volume spike would that be a positive signal.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands show the price near the lower band at the end of the 24-hour period, indicating a high volatility contraction and potential for a reversion to the mean. However, given the sustained bearish momentum, it is more likely that price could test the lower band again rather than break higher. A move toward the 2.6e-06 level could trigger a temporary bounce, but only a strong volume reversal would suggest a sustained turnaround.

Volume & Turnover

Volume and turnover were strongly aligned with price action, with peaks occurring during key price declines. The highest volume spike (32173.82) occurred at 16:00 ET, coinciding with a sharp drop from 2.79e-06 to 2.77e-06. A second peak (12475.61) occurred at 07:15 ET, following a 2.65e-06 to 2.64e-06 decline. The alignment of volume and price suggests bearish confirmation rather than divergence.

Fibonacci Retracements

Using the most recent 15-minute swing from 2.79e-06 to 2.6e-06, the 38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels are at 2.72e-06 and 2.66e-06 respectively. Price appears to have tested the 61.8% level at 2.66e-06 and failed to hold it, suggesting further downside is possible. On a daily chart, the 38.2% retracement of the larger bearish move is at 2.73e-06, where price stalled multiple times, reinforcing the likelihood of continued bearish pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy outlined involves a mean-reversion setup using Bollinger Bands and RSI as entry and exit signals. The hypothesis assumes that when price nears the lower Bollinger Band and RSI dips below 30, a long entry is triggered. A stop loss is placed below the 20-period moving average, and a take profit is set at the 50-period moving average. Given the recent proximity of price to the lower band and the RSI at 34, this strategy could be tested for a potential long entry, though caution is warranted due to the strong bearish trendline and Fibonacci support exhaustion. If price fails to hold 2.64e-06, this setup may prove unreliable over the next 24 hours.