Market Overview for Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC): 24-Hour Price, Volume, and Volatility Trends

• Price opened at $2.47e-06 and peaked at $2.57e-06 before closing at $2.42e-06.
• Key resistance formed near $2.52e-06 while support held briefly at $2.44e-06.
• Volatility expanded midday, but volume failed to confirm the breakout attempt.
• RSI overbought levels and MACD divergence suggest a potential reversal near term.
• Low turnover after 12:00 ET implies waning institutional interest in the pair.

Market Opening and Price Action

The Axelar/Bitcoin (AXLBTC) pair opened at $2.47e-06 on 2025-10-04 and moved upward, reaching a 24-hour high of $2.57e-06. However, the price eventually retraced to close at $2.42e-06 by 12:00 ET the following day. Over the period, the total traded volume amounted to approximately 168,848.66 Axelar tokens, with a notional turnover of roughly $426.65 (assuming Bitcoin price constant at $65,000).

Key Support and Resistance Levels

A strong resistance level appears to be forming near $2.52e-06, where price stalled multiple times, including an attempted breakout on the 15-minute chart around 20:45 ET. The first level of support is seen at $2.44e-06, where price found a temporary floor, though it broke through later. A bullish engulfing pattern formed briefly near $2.47e-06, suggesting a possible reversal, though it was soon invalidated by bearish momentum.

Trend and Momentum Indicators

The MACD crossed into negative territory after 01:00 ET, signaling weakening bullish momentum. RSI moved into overbought levels above 70 earlier in the session, but failed to hold those levels, suggesting a bearish divergence. Volatility, as measured by Bollinger Bands, expanded midday, particularly between 20:00 and 21:00 ET, but price failed to maintain above the upper band, reinforcing bearish bias.

Volume and Turnover Divergence

Volume surged to over 14,742.74 Axelar tokens during a midday rally near $2.57e-06, but price failed to hold those levels, indicating a lack of follow-through. Conversely, turnover declined significantly after 05:00 ET, with near-zero activity noted in multiple 15-minute intervals. This suggests reduced investor interest, especially from larger participants, during the latter half of the session.

Fibonacci Retracement Levels

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $2.47e-06 to $2.57e-06 shows key levels at $2.52e-06 (38.2%) and $2.50e-06 (61.8%). Price struggled to hold above $2.52e-06 and eventually retested the 38.2% level as support, failing to find a solid base. Daily Fibonacci levels from the recent swing high and low also suggest that further downward pressure may be expected until the $2.44e-06 level is tested again.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price divergence and volume weakness, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short-biased entry at $2.52e-06 with a stop-loss placed above the 15-minute high of $2.57e-06. A target could be set at $2.44e-06, based on the previous support level. This approach would aim to capture the continuation of bearish momentum, particularly if RSI remains below 50 and MACD stays in negative territory.