Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether USDt (AVAXUSDT) on 2025-09-06

• Price declined from a high of $24.57 to a low of $24.09, forming a bearish trend with mixed momentum signals.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions early in the session, but closed near oversold territory at the close.
• Bollinger Bands expanded mid-session, reflecting increased volatility, followed by a contraction toward the close.
• Volume surged in the early hours of the session but declined significantly in the final 6 hours, showing weakening conviction in price action.
• Notable patterns included a bearish engulfing candle on 2025-09-05 20:45 ET and a possible bullish harami in the final candle.

Opening and Closing Summary

Avalanche/Tether USDt (AVAXUSDT) opened at $24.46 on 2025-09-05 at 12:00 ET. The pair surged to an intraday high of $24.58 before retreating to a session low of $24.09, closing the 24-hour period at $24.16 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-06. The total 24-hour trading volume was 725,128.39, with a notional turnover of $17,632,256.81. The price action reflected bearish bias with intermittent buying attempts.

Structure & Key Levels

The 24-hour chart for AVAXUSDT showed a distinct bearish bias, with resistance levels forming around $24.35 and $24.45, and support levels consolidating at $24.20 and $24.10. A bearish engulfing pattern appeared at $24.5 on 2025-09-05 20:45 ET, suggesting a shift in market sentiment. A potential bullish harami appeared at the close, hinting at a possible short-term bounce. Notably, the price tested the $24.24 level twice without breaking it decisively, indicating a key psychological threshold.

Support and Resistance

Key support levels observed were $24.24 and $24.10. Resistance levels were noted at $24.35 and $24.45. A bearish breakdown below $24.24 could target $24.10 and possibly $24.05, while a retest of $24.35 may trigger a sell-off from $24.40 if not confirmed.

Technical Indicators

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in mid-session, indicating bearish momentum. The RSI dropped to 30 near the close, signaling oversold conditions and suggesting potential for a short-term rebound. However, the absence of a strong buying response at this level implies that conviction among buyers remains low.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the early part of the session, especially between 17:00 and 21:00 ET, as volatility increased. The bands contracted near the close, suggesting a period of consolidation. Price remained within the bands for the most part, staying close to the lower band in the final hours, which could indicate a possible near-term reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both declined, maintaining a bearish slope. The 50-period MA remained above the 20-period, confirming a short-term bearish bias. On a daily timeframe, the 50, 100, and 200-period MAs showed a clear downtrend, with the 50-period below the 100- and 200-period MAs, reinforcing the bearish structure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels were applied to the key swing high of $24.58 and swing low of $24.09. The 38.2% level is at $24.39, and the 61.8% level is at $24.33. Price found support near the 61.8% level but failed to confirm a strong bounce. A break below the 61.8% level could extend the decline toward the 23.6% level at $24.29 and possibly the 50% level at $24.34, depending on volume.

Volume and Turnover

Volume was most concentrated in the early part of the session, with a peak of 85,854.62 at 21:30 ET. Turnover also spiked during the same period, confirming the bearish move. As the session progressed, both volume and turnover declined, with the final hours showing minimal conviction in either direction. Price and turnover moved in tandem during the key bearish breakdown, but diverged in the final candle, hinting at indecision among traders.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve entering short positions on a confirmed break of the 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart, with a stop-loss placed just above the most recent swing high. Traders could also look for a retest of the 61.8% Fibonacci level as an entry point for short positions, with a target near $24.10 and a stop-loss above $24.35. This strategy would aim to capture bearish continuation in a consolidating market, using both trend and retracement levels to time entries.