Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) — October 4, 2025

• Price remained in a tight range between $30.49 and $31.57.
• Key support at $31.05 held, with resistance forming near $31.50.
• Volume spiked during the early hours of October 4, but price failed to break higher.
• RSI and MACD showed no extreme momentum, suggesting neutral market sentiment.
• Bollinger Bands remained narrow, indicating low volatility for much of the 24-hour period.

Opening Summary

On October 4, 2025, at 12:00 ET, Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $31.05 after a 24-hour range of $30.49 to $31.57. The total volume traded across the 24-hour 15-minute candlesticks was 5,279,826.26 AVAX, with a notional turnover of approximately $164,765,293 (assuming USDT ≈ USD). The price closed at $31.11, indicating a consolidation pattern with no strong directional bias.

Structure & Formations

AVAX/USDT showed a mixed but structured 24-hour candle pattern. A strong bullish 15-minute engulfing pattern occurred at 16:45 ET on October 3, followed by a bearish rejection at 17:00 ET. A doji formed at 18:30 ET, signaling indecision after a brief rally. Key support levels were identified at $31.05 and $30.85, both of which held during sharp intraday pullbacks. Resistance levels were visible at $31.50 and $31.25, where price failed to close above consistently.

Moving Averages (15-Minute Chart)

The 20-period and 50-period simple moving averages on the 15-minute chart remained relatively close to one another, hovering between $31.00 and $31.20. Price oscillated between the two lines, indicating a continuation of the lateral range. The 50-SMA acted as a temporary support near $31.10, which was tested multiple times but not broken decisively.

MACD & RSI

The 12-26 MACD histogram showed neutral readings, with a small positive divergence observed around 20:00 ET on October 3, followed by a bearish crossover around 03:15 ET on October 4. This suggests a potential bearish shift in short-term momentum. The RSI remained between 45 and 60 for much of the period, indicating a balanced market without overbought or oversold conditions. No extreme readings signaled a reversal or continuation.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands remained relatively narrow for the majority of the 24-hour window, especially before 22:00 ET on October 3, when volatility increased. Price touched the upper band briefly at $31.48 but failed to maintain the level. The narrowing bands suggest a consolidation phase, with a potential breakout or breakdown likely if volume and momentum increase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 16:45 and 17:15 ET on October 3, aligning with intraday highs and rejections. The peak volume occurred at 17:15 ET with 308,222 AVAX traded, while turnover reached $9,707,780. However, price failed to close above the 16:45 high, indicating rejection. Volume and price action diverged slightly around 04:00–05:00 ET on October 4, suggesting possible exhaustion in the current trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent swing low at $30.49 and swing high at $31.57 revealed key retracement levels. The 61.8% level at $31.20 served as a psychological barrier for much of the session, with the 38.2% level at $30.92 providing short-term support. Price hovered around $31.10–$31.20 during the final hours, indicating a potential test of the 50% retracement level.

Forward Outlook and Risk Consideration

Looking ahead, a break above $31.50 on strong volume could trigger a short-term bullish move toward $31.70–$32.00. Conversely, a retest of the $31.05 support with a close below it could push price toward $30.85 and beyond. Investors should remain cautious, as the market remains in a tight trading range and is susceptible to sudden volatility shifts with macroeconomic or news-driven triggers.

Backtest Hypothesis

A backtesting strategy based on a combination of RSI divergence and volume confirmation could be applied to this setup. Specifically, a long entry could be triggered when RSI shows a bullish divergence (higher lows on price, lower lows on RSI) and volume increases, with a stop loss below the most recent swing low. A short entry could be considered when RSI shows bearish divergence and volume spikes during a rejection at resistance. Given the current market structure, these conditions were partially observed around 17:00–18:00 ET on October 3 and again at 04:00–05:00 ET on October 4, making these times of interest for a potential strategy implementation.