Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT)

Summary
• Price surged to a 24-hour high of $18.35 before consolidating near $18.00.
• Volume expanded significantly during the late morning and early afternoon, signaling heightened interest.
• Momentum indicators suggest overbought conditions, raising potential for near-term pullbacks.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $17.69 on 2025-11-09 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $18.35, and closed at $17.92 at 12:00 ET on 2025-11-10. The 24-hour trading session saw total volume of 1,131,968.94 and turnover of $19,304,178.57. The price action suggests a strong bullish impulse, followed by a consolidation phase, as buyers and sellers attempt to find balance.

Structure & Formations

AVAXUSDT formed a bullish breakout above key resistance near $18.00 and tested a prior high of $18.35 before retracting. A Bearish Engulfing pattern appeared at the top of the candle range, hinting at potential near-term reversal risk. A strong support zone is forming around $17.70–$17.80, with a potential continuation of bullish momentum if this level holds.

Moving Averages and Bollinger Bands

The 20- and 50-period SMAs on the 15-minute chart indicate bullish momentum, with the price currently above both. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-day averages are converging, suggesting a possible shift in trend. Bollinger Bands show recent expansion, indicating heightened volatility. Price remains near the upper band, which may signal a potential retracement.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has turned negative, reflecting waning bullish momentum. The RSI stands at overbought territory (~75), which historically correlates with potential pullbacks. If the RSI fails to retreat below 60, buyers may regain control.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 09:45–10:30 ET window, coinciding with a sharp rally to $18.25. Turnover aligned with the price high, indicating significant participation. A divergence between price and volume in the final hours suggests weakening conviction among bullish participants.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracement levels based on the $17.64–$18.35 swing show the current price near the 61.8% level at $18.05. A breakdown below the 50% level at $18.00 could target the 38.2% support at $17.92 and then the critical $17.80 level.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed Bearish Engulfing pattern near the 24-hour high, a short entry on day 0 could be triggered. A full backtest from January 1, 2022, through November 10, 2025, would evaluate the average returns of holding this short for three trading days. This would confirm whether the pattern reliably precedes bearish reversals in AVAXUSDT.