Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT)

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• AVAX/USDT rallied from $22.20 to $24.07 before retreating, forming bearish divergence in volume and price.
• Strong resistance at $24.04 was breached but failed to hold, with RSI showing overbought exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded through Bollinger Band breakouts, but failed to maintain upside momentum.
• Key support now at $22.80–$22.85, with engulfing and shooting star patterns signaling potential reversal.
• Momentum indicators and Fibonacci levels suggest a consolidation phase around $22.75–$22.85 next.

24-Hour Summary (12:00 ET - 1 to 12:00 ET)

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $22.69 and traded to a high of $24.07 before closing at $22.42. Total 24-hour volume reached 1.53 million AVAX, with notional turnover of $34.5 million. The price action showed a sharp rebound after 6 p.m. ET, followed by a bearish reversal into the overnight hours.

Structure & Formations

The price formed a bullish engulfing pattern after 6 p.m. ET, pushing to $24.07, but failed to hold that high, forming a shooting star and bearish divergence. Key support levels appear at $22.80, $22.65, and $22.30, with resistance above at $23.00 and $23.35. The 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent high is currently at $23.04, offering a near-term pivot level.

MACD & RSI

The RSI hit overbought territory above 70 during the late afternoon surge but fell back below 60 as selling pressure emerged overnight. MACD showed a bearish crossover, with the histogram diverging from price as the rally faded. Momentum appears to have shifted, and without a retest of $23.50, bears may control the short-term direction.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded after 6 p.m. ET, with the price breaking out of the upper band, but failed to maintain that momentum, closing near the 20-period moving average. The bands are now narrowing again, signaling potential consolidation or a reversal phase.

Volume & Turnover

The most intense volume spikes occurred during the late afternoon push, with 163k AVAX traded at $23.25 and 200k AVAX at $23.52. Turnover peaked at $4.9 million during this period. However, volume declined significantly after 11 p.m. ET, suggesting a lack of follow-through from buyers. A price reversal with high volume during the next session would signal stronger conviction from bears.

Moving Averages

The 20-period moving average on the 15-minute chart is currently at $22.78, while the 50-period is at $22.83. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) are aligned slightly below current levels, indicating a retest of $22.80 could trigger a 50-day MA crossover and short-term support validation.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the RSI’s overbought and oversold behavior observed today, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on AVAXUSDT using 14-period RSI signals on a daily timeframe. A long position could be opened when RSI dips below 30, while exits could be triggered when RSI re-enters the 30–70 range. Historical data could be used to test the strategy’s efficacy during past volatility events.