Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT): 24-Hour Summary

Summary

• • •
• AVAXUSDT rallied from 15.61 to 17.44, forming bullish patterns like the engulfing and hammer.
• Volume surged near the peak at 17.32, while turnover confirmed strength in the 17.00–17.50 range.
• RSI approached overbought levels, suggesting short-term exhaustion, but momentum remains firm.

Opening Narrative

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at 15.72 on 2025-11-06 at 12:00 ET, and surged to a 24-hour high of 17.44 before closing at 17.32 at 12:00 ET today. The pair traded between 15.61 and 17.44, with a total 24-hour volume of 195548.6 and a notional turnover of 3.37 million (calculated using average prices).

The price action was defined by a powerful bullish reversal from the 15.80–16.00 support and a subsequent test of key resistance at 16.50, 16.80, and ultimately 17.00.

Structure & Formations

The daily chart shows AVAXUSDT forming a Bullish Engulfing pattern near the 15.70–15.80 support, followed by a strong break above the 16.50–16.80 consolidation. The rally into 17.00–17.20 was supported by a Bullish Hammer at 16.90–17.00.

Key resistance levels to watch are now 17.30 and 17.50, with 17.44 acting as a fresh peak. Support remains anchored at 16.70 and 16.50, where the volume profile shows high participation.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, AVAXUSDT closed well above the 20-period and 50-period SMAs, confirming a short-term bullish trend. On the daily timeframe, the 50-day SMA is at ~16.40, and the 200-day SMA near ~15.50—both well below the current price. The 100-day SMA sits at ~15.90, further confirming a strong break from recent consolidation.

The price is now in a strong overbought region on the daily chart, raising questions about sustainability.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive and remains above the signal line with a strong histogram, indicating increasing bullish momentum. The RSI approached the 80 threshold, suggesting short-term overbought conditions but not yet signaling a reversal.

The divergence between the bullish price and the slowing RSI suggests a potential short-term pause could develop in the next 24 hours.

Bollinger Bands

AVAXUSDT spent the last 24 hours outside the upper Bollinger Band, confirming a strong breakout from a 10–15-day consolidation. The width of the bands has expanded significantly, indicating heightened volatility.

The current price of 17.32 sits ~3.5% above the 20-period moving average and 6.5% above the 50-period moving average, suggesting a strong breakout.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 16.50–17.32 push, particularly around the 17.00–17.20 level, where 195,548.6 units changed hands. This was accompanied by a sharp rise in turnover, confirming institutional participation and conviction in the rally.

However, the most recent 15-minute candles show declining volume, indicating a possible pause in buying pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the 15.61–17.44 swing, key levels to watch are:
- 61.8% at ~16.43
- 50% at ~16.02
- 38.2% at ~16.52

On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the 15.50–17.44 move sits at 16.25, which has already been tested and broken.

Backtest Hypothesis

The “Bullish Engulfing – 24 Hour Hold” strategy, as tested over three years, revealed a net negative performance with a cumulative return of -6.18%. This outcome indicates that relying on a simple daily candlestick pattern for 24-hour holds may not be sufficient to capture sustained momentum in AVAXUSDT.

The backtest also highlighted a negative Sharpe ratio and large drawdowns, suggesting that the strategy failed to reward the assumed volatility. A more robust approach may involve extending the holding period, adding trend filters, or incorporating tighter risk controls.