Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) – 24-Hour Summary

• Price fell sharply from $27.22 to a low of $8.52 before rebounding to close at $22.68.
• Momentum shifted decisively lower after a volume spike of 1.86 million, followed by a rebound in early ET hours.
• Volatility spiked during the initial plunge but has stabilized as AVAXUSDT trades in a tighter range.
• Key Fibonacci levels at $20.56 and $22.37 appear to act as short-term support and resistance.
• RSI showed oversold conditions during the selloff, but buying interest increased after $19.25.

The 24-hour candle for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $26.99 on 2025-10-10 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of $27.22, and a low of $8.52, closing at $22.68 as of 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume amounted to 12.8 million AVAX, with notional turnover of $283.7 million over the 24-hour period. The pair experienced a sharp decline in the early evening ET hours before stabilizing and recovering modestly in the following morning.

Structure & Formations

AVAXUSDT saw a dramatic breakdown from the $26.99–$27.22 range into a key support area near $20.56–$22.11. The breakdown was confirmed by a long bearish candle on the 15-minute chart at 19:30 ET, closing at $26.08 after a high of $26.46. The recovery phase formed a bullish reversal pattern, particularly in the 00:00–01:00 ET window, with a strong volume spike at $21.00–$21.30 ET. A key resistance appears at $22.85–$23.12, where prices struggled to break above in the morning session.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, AVAXUSDT closed near the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, with the 50-period line trending slightly lower. On the daily chart, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages are all descending, reflecting the broader bearish trend. The price has been trading slightly above the 50-period line in recent hours, suggesting a potential short-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned negative sharply during the initial selloff but has since flattened as buying pressure increased. The RSI hit oversold levels during the $8.52–$19.25 drop and began recovering around $20.56–$21.34. Currently, RSI sits in neutral territory, suggesting a potential continuation of the current sideways consolidation pattern unless a strong breakout occurs.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded dramatically during the breakdown phase, with AVAXUSDT falling below the lower band and trading in a wide range for over 4 hours. Since 02:00 ET, the price has remained within the bands, indicating reduced volatility. The upper band currently sits at $22.85–$22.97, and the lower band at $21.85–$21.97, with the pair oscillating within this range.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 1.86 million during the breakdown, confirming the move as significant. The recovery phase saw moderate volume, suggesting that while buying pressure increased, it has not yet reached a level to sustain a strong rebound. Notional turnover during the breakdown was the highest of the 24-hour period, while the later consolidation phase saw a drop in both volume and turnover.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent swing from $27.22 to $8.52, key levels are at 38.2% ($21.67), 50% ($17.87), and 61.8% ($14.17). On the shorter 15-minute chart, the 38.2% level at $22.37 has acted as a minor resistance. The 61.8% level at $19.25 was briefly tested but rebounded with increased volume, suggesting potential support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed price action and volume dynamics, a potential backtest hypothesis could focus on using a dual moving average crossover (50-period and 200-period) on the daily chart to identify the broader bearish trend, combined with a Fibonacci retracement-based stop-loss at the 61.8% level ($19.25). A long entry could be triggered when AVAXUSDT breaks above the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, accompanied by a volume confirmation. This approach would aim to capture the recent upward bounce while managing risk with a well-defined stop.