Market Overview: Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) – 24-Hour Price Action and Key Levels

• AVAX/USDT traded between $29.89 and $31.09, with a 24-hour close above prior open.
• Strong bullish momentum in early ET hours, followed by consolidation and pullback.
• Volume and turnover spiked during the $30.26–$31.09 rally, suggesting increased participation.
• RSI and MACD showed overbought conditions during the high, followed by bearish divergence.
• Key support levels at $29.93–$29.97 and resistance near $30.46–$30.50 appear critical for next 24 hours.

The Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) pair opened at $29.89 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of $31.09 and a low of $29.86 before closing at $30.34 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-10-05. Total traded volume reached 1,131,818.95 AVAX, while notional turnover amounted to approximately $34,652,614. The price action showed a strong bull breakout followed by a consolidation phase and a sharp correction.

Structure & Formations

The 24-hour period featured multiple key swing points, with the most prominent bullish move occurring between 03:00–05:00 ET, where AVAX/USDT surged from $30.26 to $31.09. This rally included a bullish engulfing pattern and a hammer formation at the top, both of which suggest a potential reversal or consolidation phase. On the downside, the price pulled back sharply from the $31.09 high, forming bearish divergence in the RSI and a potential bearish harami pattern near $30.88. Key support levels appear at $29.93–$29.97, while resistance clusters form at $30.46–$30.50 and $30.60–$30.66.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (SMA) crossed above the 50-period SMA in the early hours of the session, signaling a bullish bias. However, by 05:00 ET, the 20 SMA had crossed below the 50 SMA, indicating a potential bearish shift. For the daily chart, the 50-period SMA sits at approximately $29.98, while the 200-period SMA is near $29.85. The price is currently above both, indicating a short-to-medium-term bullish setup. The 100-period SMA at $29.92 could act as a critical support threshold.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line showed a strong bullish divergence in the early ET hours, with a rapid surge in positive momentum. However, by 05:00 ET, the MACD had crossed below the signal line, pointing to a bearish trend shift. The RSI reached overbought territory (75+) during the $31.09 peak, followed by a sharp decline into oversold conditions (25–30) during the pullback. This suggests a potential correction cycle is underway, with RSI now stabilizing in the neutral to slightly bearish range (50–60), indicating possible consolidation ahead.

The RSI and MACD together form a bearish divergence after the price high, reinforcing the likelihood of continued downward pressure. A retest of the 20-period EMA at $30.45–$30.48 could provide a near-term resistance check.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the price surge from $30.26 to $31.09, expanding the Bollinger Bands’ width. The price reached the upper band at the peak before retracing sharply downward, crossing into the lower band during the $30.08–$29.86 move. The current price of $30.34 sits just above the 20-period moving average and within the upper half of the bands, suggesting that volatility is moderating and the market is entering a consolidation phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the bullish breakout from $30.26 to $31.09, with the highest 15-minute volume occurring at 05:00 ET ($115,887.35 AVAX). The subsequent bearish correction also saw increased volume, suggesting strong conviction in the downward move. Notional turnover followed a similar trend, peaking during the $31.09 high and again during the pullback, indicating heightened market participation. However, the most recent 15-minute candle at 16:00 ET showed a relatively low volume of 9,541.65 AVAX and a smaller price move, suggesting the market may be entering a lower-activity phase.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the $29.86–$31.09 swing, the 61.8% retracement level is currently at $30.57, and the 38.2% retracement is at $30.45. These levels have already been tested and rejected, indicating they may now act as key resistance. On the downside, the 50% retracement level is at $30.47 and the 38.2% support at $30.39 appear to be near the current price level. A break below $30.15 would trigger the 61.8% support at $30.01, which could then become a critical threshold.

Fibonacci retracement levels show that key resistance is forming at $30.45–$30.57, while support lies at $30.15–$30.01. A breakout above $30.57 could signal a resumption of the bullish trend.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price action and pattern formation, a potential backtesting strategy could focus on a breakout and retest approach. For example, a long position could be triggered when price closes above the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $30.57 with volume confirmation, and a stop-loss could be placed below the 38.2% retracement at $30.45. A short position could be considered if the price breaks below $30.15 with a stop above $30.25. This strategy would aim to capture directional moves during consolidation phases, leveraging both volume and Fibonacci level confluence for entry and exit signals.