Market Overview: Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) 24-Hour Performance on 2025-10-01

• AVAXUSDT surged to $30.93 but reversed with increasing volume during late ET hours
• Key resistance at $30.74–$30.88 was tested multiple times with mixed follow-through
• Volatility expanded during the session as price oscillated within a wide $2.80 range
• RSI reached overbought levels in the afternoon before retreating, indicating possible exhaustion
• Bollinger Bands showed expansion during bullish phases, then contraction as consolidation set in

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $28.95 on 2025-09-30 12:00 ET and reached a high of $31.04 before closing at $30.80 on 2025-10-01 12:00 ET. The 24-hour session saw a low of $28.81 and closed near session highs. Total volume for the period was 2,590,419.56 AVAX, with a notional turnover of $77,861,451.

Structure & Formations

The session displayed strong bullish momentum during the early morning hours, with a decisive break above key resistance at $30.74, followed by a bearish reversal later in the day. A large bearish engulfing pattern emerged around $30.74–$30.62 between 10:15–10:45 AM ET. The price consolidated near this level for much of the session, suggesting short-term equilibrium may have formed. A doji pattern at $30.73–$30.74 around 05:15–05:30 AM ET indicated indecision, while a long upper wick at $30.88–$30.73 at 03:45–04:00 AM ET suggested buyers struggled to sustain gains.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period moving average (20-SMA) rose from $29.00 to $30.50 during the session, showing strong upward bias. The 50-SMA tracked closely behind, reinforcing the bullish trend early on. On the daily chart, AVAXUSDT closed above the 50-day SMA, which currently sits around $29.60, indicating a positive medium-term bias. The price remained below the 200-day SMA at $28.75, leaving room for further upside.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned bullish as early as 1:30 AM ET and remained positive for most of the session, with the signal line rising in tandem. The RSI surged to 73–75 (overbought territory) at the peak of the rally, then dropped back into the 50–55 range by midday. This suggests the rally may be losing momentum, and a bearish correction could follow. The RSI divergence with price at the end of the session indicates bearish exhaustion.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the rally phase, with price touching the upper band at $31.04. After reaching this level, the bands began to contract as price consolidated in a tight range between $30.65 and $30.80. The narrowing of the bands implies potential volatility breakout in the near term.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to over 186,000 AVAX during the 8:45–9:00 AM ET period, as price surged from $30.27 to $30.74. This was accompanied by a notional turnover of nearly $5.7 million, indicating strong institutional buying. Later in the session, volume declined, but price remained range-bound, suggesting reduced conviction among traders.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, price tested the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $30.74–$30.80 multiple times before consolidating. On the daily chart, the 38.2% and 61.8% retracement levels currently sit at $29.70 and $28.85, respectively, offering potential support if the correction continues.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the strong reversal pattern and RSI divergence, a potential backtest strategy could be to short AVAXUSDT near the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $30.74–$30.80 with a stop-loss above $30.88 and a target at $30.55. This aligns with the bearish engulfing pattern and overbought RSI. A long entry could also be considered on a breakout above $31.05 with a stop-loss at $30.90 and a target at $31.30, capitalizing on the strong momentum seen in the session.

Looking ahead, traders should monitor the $30.65–$30.80 consolidation range for a potential breakout. A break above $30.88 could re-ignite bullish momentum, but a retest of the $30.55–$30.62 level could trigger a deeper correction. Investors should be cautious as overbought conditions and divergences suggest a high probability of near-term volatility.