Market Overview: Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis

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• AVAXUSDT opened at $18.27, traded between $17.51–$18.53, and closed at $18.27.
• Momentum shifted between oversold and overbought RSI levels, with a closing RSI near 47.
• Volatility expanded in the last 12 hours, with notional turnover peaking at $810,981.42 during a sharp pullback.
• Price found support around $17.70–$17.85, and resistance at $18.25–$18.45 during key 15-minute swings.
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Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $18.27 on 2025-10-30 at 12:00 ET and closed at $18.27 exactly 24 hours later. During this window, it reached a high of $18.53 and a low of $17.51. The total volume traded was 1,863,587.27 AVAX, with notional turnover of approximately $33,016,314.25. Price action displayed choppy momentum and several key support/resistance zones that influenced short-term directional bias.

The 15-minute OHLC structure shows a descending triangle forming from $17.70 to $18.40, with a notable bullish engulfing pattern emerging around 09:30–09:45 ET as price rebounded from a 24-hour low. A doji appeared at 05:00 ET, signaling a potential reversal after an early morning rally. The 20-period EMA was near $18.20, while the 50-period EMA sat at ~$18.25—indicating a slightly bullish bias for the immediate horizon. On daily timeframes, the 50/100/200 EMA lines suggest AVAXUSDT remains in a broader consolidation pattern, with the 200-day EMA acting as a psychological floor near $17.80.

Bollinger Bands show a moderate expansion, with the upper band reaching $18.47 and the lower band hitting $18.02. Price spent much of the 24-hour period near the lower band, suggesting a period of subdued bullish momentum. RSI moved from oversold (near 30) to overbought (near 70) and back, aligning with the sharp corrections and rebounds. MACD crossed zero three times, confirming mixed momentum phases: bullish in the early morning and bearish in the late afternoon before a final bullish crossover near the close.

Volume spiked during the sharp selloff at 20:00 ET, confirming the move down to $17.59. This divergence between volume and price in the afternoon hours suggests some strength in the bearish move. Conversely, the rebound at 23:45 ET saw relatively moderate volume, raising questions about the sustainability of the rally. Overall, the 24-hour print shows a market testing key support and resistance, with no clear breakout yet.

Backtest Hypothesis

The RSI “Oversold ➜ Overbought” strategy on AVAXUSDT shows a compelling but volatile risk profile. With a 95% total return since 2022, the strategy aligns well with the 24-hour RSI action observed, where the asset frequently oscillated between key levels. The current RSI reading of ~47, combined with the support at $17.70 and resistance at $18.45, supports the strategy’s entry and exit logic. However, the 60% peak drawdown observed in the backtest is consistent with the sharp $17.59 low seen earlier in the day, suggesting high volatility remains a risk. The use of a 20% stop-loss, as outlined, would have protected against the deep pullback but could have also limited gains during the recovery rally. Given the current configuration of Bollinger Bands and MACD, a tighter stop-loss or dynamic trailing mechanism may offer better risk-adjusted returns in this market environment.