Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) – 2025-11-13

Summary
• AVAXUSDT opened at $16.89 and closed at $16.72, with intraday high of $16.97 and low of $16.69.
• Momentum shifted bearish late in the session, marked by bearish engulfing patterns.
• Total volume traded was ~708,433, with turnover of ~$11.6 million, signaling moderate activity.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $16.89 on 2025-11-13 and closed at $16.72 at 12:00 ET, hitting a high of $16.97 and a low of $16.69. Over the 24-hour period, total volume was approximately 708,433 AVAX, and notional turnover reached $11.6 million. Price action suggests a bearish reversal later in the session, with key patterns forming that may signal further downside pressure.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart shows a bearish engulfing pattern around 2025-11-13 14:45 ET and a bearish harami near the close, suggesting short-term bearish momentum. A key support zone has formed between $16.75–$16.69, while resistance is evident near $16.88–$16.92. A breakdown below $16.70 may open the door to $16.60.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA and 50-EMA have crossed bearishly, reinforcing the recent downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 EMA lines are aligned bearishly, with AVAXUSDT trading below all three, confirming a medium-term downtrend. Price is trending below key moving averages, indicating bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line early in the session, with bearish divergence forming. RSI has declined from overbought territory (~70) to neutral (~50), suggesting the bullish phase has run its course. A drop below 50 could indicate further bearish momentum, with a potential target of 40–45 indicating oversold conditions.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased in the final hours of trading, with price closing near the lower band at $16.72, suggesting bearish exhaustion. The band width has expanded, signaling increased uncertainty. A retest of the lower band could confirm a short-term support level.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged in the latter half of the session, especially between 14:00 and 16:00 ET, coinciding with price breaking below key support. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, confirming the bearish breakdown. However, divergence appears in the final hour—rising volume with a small close suggests potential short-term consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

The $16.70–$16.69 level corresponds to the 61.8% retracement of the $16.69–$16.97 swing. If this level holds, a 38.2% retracement at $16.82 may act as a short-term resistance for any bounces. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of a larger bullish move remains relevant at $17.05.

Backtest Hypothesis

A simple strategy based on the same pattern seen in the 15-minute chart—entry on a bearish engulfing pattern and a fixed 5-day exit—produced a total return of –40.87% from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-13. The Sharpe ratio of –0.14 and max drawdown of 63.02% suggest a negative edge. While the pattern appeared bearish in today’s session, it lacks a positive risk-reward profile when traded mechanically. Adding dynamic exits or higher timeframe confirmations may improve the strategy, but caution is warranted given the poor historical performance.