Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) on 2025-11-03

• AVAXUSDT dropped from $18.91 to $16.51 in 24 hours amid bearish momentum and high volume.
• Key 15-minute support levels emerged around $17.30 and $16.60 with potential bearish continuation.
• RSI hit oversold territory below 30, signaling possible short-term bounce or deeper correction.
• Bollinger Bands expanded sharply post-15:30 ET, showing heightened volatility and price divergence.
• Volume spiked during the selloff, confirming bearish strength and diverging from early bullish trends.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $18.24 on 2025-11-02 at 12:00 ET and fell to $16.51 by 15:30 ET, with a 24-hour high of $18.91 and a low of $16.32. The pair closed at $16.76 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-03, with a total traded volume of 14,125,561 and a notional turnover of $252,387,370.

On the 15-minute chart, key support levels emerged around $17.30 and $16.60, with the latter showing strong rejection after a large bearish candle on the 15:30 ET time frame. A potential continuation pattern is in play, with a bearish flag forming from $18.30 to $16.50. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages have both dipped below the 200-period MA, reinforcing the bearish trend. A doji at $17.48 and a dark cloud cover at $18.76 indicate potential short-term exhaustion of bullish momentum.

The RSI has fallen below 30 for the last two hours, indicating oversold conditions and potential for a short-term bounce. However, given the volume and price divergence seen in the final hours of the 24-hour period, a deeper correction into the $16.30–$16.50 range remains possible. MACD is bearish with both lines below the zero line and a narrowing histogram, though a cross above the signal line could trigger a short-term reversal. The 50-period MA is approaching $17.40 and may act as a psychological trigger for traders.

Bollinger Bands have expanded sharply following the large selloff between 15:30 and 16:30 ET, indicating increased volatility and potential for a retest of the lower band at $16.30. Price remains within the lower half of the bands, suggesting a high probability of continued downside pressure unless buyers aggressively step in. Fibonacci retracements drawn from the $16.32 low to the $18.91 high indicate key levels at 61.8% ($17.84) and 38.2% ($17.47), which are being tested but appear to be under pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis
Given the current RSI reading below 30 and the bearish trend confirmed by multiple technical indicators, the “RSI Oversold (RSI < 30) – 5-Day Hold” strategy is relevant to assess potential opportunities for recovery or further correction. Historically, the strategy has captured short-term rebounds from oversold conditions, with varying success depending on broader market context. In the current environment of heightened volatility and bearish momentum, the 5-day hold period could serve as a test of whether AVAXUSDT experiences a bounce or enters a new downtrend.