Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) on 2025-10-10

• Price swung between $27.58 and $28.57, closing near 61.8% retracement of the key 15-min move.
• Momentum accelerated in the final 4 hours but showed early signs of divergence.
• Volatility expanded post-18:00 ET, with high-volume divergence suggesting uncertain continuation.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions late in the session with no clear resolution.
• Bollinger Band squeeze preceded sharp move, indicating potential exhaustion in the current range.

24-Hour Summary

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) traded in a 24-hour range of $27.58 to $28.57, opening at $27.97 (12:00 ET−1) and closing at $26.99 (12:00 ET). Total volume reached 551903.24, with $27.2 as the final weighted close. The pair exhibited elevated volatility and volume during the afternoon, but price ended near a key Fibonacci level with bearish confirmation at session close.

Structure & Formations

The session featured a sharp bearish reversal from the 18:00 ET peak, with a large 15-minute bearish candle opening at $28.11 and closing at $27.92 — signaling potential exhaustion in the bullish trend. A significant bearish engulfing pattern formed between 15:15 ET and 15:30 ET, confirming a shift in sentiment from aggressive buying to selling pressure. A potential 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level at $27.97 served as a psychological pivot, but it failed to hold due to the late afternoon selloff.

Moving Averages and MACD

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke below the 20- and 50-period SMAs late in the session, reinforcing bearish momentum. MACD showed a sharp divergence between the histogram and price during the final hour, with the histogram peaking as prices hit a 24-hour low. This suggests potential for a near-term rebound or consolidation before a new leg lower could form.

Bollinger Bands and Volatility

Bollinger Bands showed a sharp expansion starting at 17:00 ET, followed by a retest of the lower band at $27.58 and a failed bounce. This expansion and retest indicate potential for a breakdown below $27.20, with a likely target at the next Fibonacci level below $26.61. The volatility spike correlated with the engulfing pattern and increased volume, which typically signals a shift in market structure.

Volume and Turnover

Volume peaked sharply at 551903.24 during the 15:30–15:45 ET window, coinciding with the price breaking below the $27.77 level. Notional turnover spiked during this hour, confirming the bearish reversal. However, a divergence emerged later in the session: price continued lower while volume began to taper off, suggesting short-term exhaustion and a possible bounce into the next trading day.

Fibonacci Retracements

The key 15-minute move from $27.58 to $28.57 aligned with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement at $27.97, which failed to hold as sellers took control. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the recent weekly swing is at $27.33, and a break below the 38.2% level at $27.04 could trigger further bearish momentum into the next session.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bearish engulfing pattern, failure at 61.8% Fibonacci, and divergence in the MACD, a potential backtesting strategy could involve a short entry on a close below the 15-minute 50-period SMA with a stop just above the last 15-minute high of $27.97. A profit target could be set at the 38.2% Fibonacci level of $27.04. This setup would be most effective when confirmed by volume surges and Bollinger Band retests, as seen during the 15:30–15:45 ET window.