Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) on 2025-10-09

• AVAX/USDT closed 0.99% lower at $28.40 after hitting a 24-hour high of $29.34 and a low of $28.12.
• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern near $29.16 and a doji at $28.36, signaling indecision and weakness.
• Volume spiked to 88,684.31 AVAX at $29.10, confirming the move lower, but faded after $28.90.
• RSI entered oversold territory at 28.40, while Bollinger Bands showed a mild contraction during the night.
• Total volume reached 932,760 AVAX, with turnover peaking at $2.46M in the 19:00–20:00 ET window.

The Avalanche/Tether pair opened at $28.35 on 2025-10-08 at 12:00 ET, surged to a 24-hour high of $29.34 by 19:00 ET, and closed at $28.40 at 12:00 ET on 2025-10-09. Total trading volume over the 24-hour window was 932,760 AVAX, with a turnover of approximately $26.28 million.

The price structure over the last 24 hours shows a bearish bias emerging after a sharp but short-lived rally. A key resistance level appears to have formed near $29.34, with the price failing to close above it. Below, a strong support level was temporarily tested near $28.40. Notably, a bearish engulfing pattern formed around $29.16, suggesting a potential reversal. A doji at $28.36 also indicates indecision and weakening bullish momentum.

Moving averages on the 15-minute chart show price hovering below the 20-period and 50-period lines, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 50-period line on the daily chart is near $29.10, which may serve as a dynamic resistance level. The 200-period line, at around $28.85, has held firm as a key area of psychological support. A cross back above these lines could signal renewed buying interest.

MACD remained bearish throughout the session, with the histogram showing a consistent contraction in momentum after the 20:00 ET window. RSI dipped into oversold territory, currently sitting at 28, which may indicate a potential bounce. Bollinger Bands showed a mild contraction during the night, suggesting a period of consolidation before the morning break. Price is currently sitting near the lower band, indicating heightened vulnerability.

The volume profile shows a sharp spike at $29.10, with a total volume of 88,684.31 AVAX, confirming the sell-off. However, volume faded significantly after the $28.90 level, suggesting a lack of follow-through from bears. Notional turnover peaked at $2.46M at the same time, aligning with the volume surge. Divergences between price and turnover were minimal, indicating no clear signs of manipulation or artificial volume.

Fibonacci retracement levels on the 15-minute swing from $29.34 to $28.12 show the 38.2% retracement at $28.79 and the 61.8% at $28.59. Price is currently testing the 61.8% level, which may act as a temporary support. On the daily chart, the 61.8% retracement of the broader move from $29.63 to $28.12 is at $28.66, a level that could see renewed interest.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy is designed to capitalize on short-term overbought/oversold conditions using RSI (14) and a moving average crossover (50-period and 200-period on the daily chart). The core logic is as follows: when RSI dips below 30 and the 50-period MA crosses below the 200-period MA (death cross), it signals a bearish momentum shift. Conversely, when RSI rises above 70 and the 50-period MA crosses above the 200-period MA (golden cross), it signals a bullish shift. A trailing stop-loss is placed at the 20-period low for short positions and the 20-period high for long positions. This approach aims to capture directional moves during consolidation phases, aligning with the observed price action and volatility patterns over the past 24 hours.