Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) – 2025-10-03

• Price surged 2.45% from $29.84 to $30.16 in 24 hours, with key bullish momentum in the afternoon.
• Volatility expanded after 19:15 ET, pushing AVAXUSDT past $31.00 before consolidating.
• Bollinger Bands widened with price near +1.5σ, while RSI entered overbought territory.
• Volume surged during the rally, exceeding 126,607 contracts in the 15-minute window.
• Downturn began after 00:15 ET, closing at $30.16 with bearish divergence in momentum.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $29.84 on 2025-10-02 at 12:00 ET, surged to a high of $31.23, and closed at $30.16 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET, settling 2.45% higher. The 24-hour volume was 1,844,866.59 contracts with a notional turnover of ~$56.43 million. Price formed a bullish engulfing pattern from 16:30–17:00 ET and later a bearish harami as it consolidated.

Structure & Formations

A strong bullish bias emerged between 16:30 and 19:45 ET, with a high of $31.23 and a bearish reversal attempt forming near $31.00. The price later corrected, forming a bearish harami near $30.90 and consolidating within a key support level of $30.60–$30.80. A 15-minute doji at 06:15 ET and a spinning top at 11:15 ET signaled indecision after the morning sell-off.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA and 50SMA were crossed multiple times between 17:00–19:30 ET, indicating choppy momentum. The 50EMA crossed above the 100EMA around 19:00 ET, suggesting a shift in bullish sentiment. On the daily chart, price held above the 200DMA at $29.65, suggesting short-term bullish bias remains intact.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD turned bullish around 17:00 ET and peaked in the positive zone before the sell-off began at 00:15 ET. RSI reached overbought levels of 75+ during the late afternoon rally and showed bearish divergence as the price pulled back. On the daily chart, RSI remains in the 55–60 range, suggesting a balanced market but with potential for a breakout.

The momentum appears to be waning as the MACD histogram flattened and the RSI showed bearish divergence in the last 6 hours, increasing the probability of a pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded after 17:00 ET as price surged past the upper band, reaching a high of $31.23, well above +1.5σ. This expansion was followed by a contraction as the price fell back into the channel, closing near the upper midline. This suggests a potential for a mean reversion but also highlights the need for confirmation in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the rally, particularly at 19:30 ET with a 126,607.27 contracts traded candle. Notional turnover reached ~$3.9 million during the high-volume rally, confirming the strength of the move. However, volume dropped off during the consolidation phase, indicating reduced conviction in the bullish thesis.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-minute chart, the $31.23 high and $30.16 low formed a clear swing with the 61.8% retracement level at $30.72 being tested multiple times. On the daily chart, the 50% retracement of the recent $30.30–$29.80 range sits at $30.05, which aligns with the 15-minute consolidation level.

While these levels appear to hold, a break below $30.05 could trigger further bearish action toward the 61.8% retracement at $29.84.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the 15-minute bullish engulfing pattern at 16:30 ET and the subsequent 61.8% Fibonacci support at $30.72, a backtesting strategy could be modeled as follows: Enter long on a bullish engulfing pattern confirmation above the 20SMA, with a stop-loss placed below the previous swing low and a take-profit at the 61.8% retracement level. This strategy would aim to capture short-term momentum while managing risk through defined exits.