Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT): 2025-09-27

• AVAX/USDT rose sharply early, peaking at $29.53 before consolidating near $28.68 at 12:00 ET.
• Strong bullish momentum seen in early hours, with a 20-period EMA sloping upward.
• RSI overbought in mid-session, followed by a pullback suggesting exhaustion.
• Volatility expanded mid-day, with Bollinger Bands widening, then contracting into the final hours.
• Volume remained consistent but declined in late hours as price settled.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $27.62 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET and surged to a high of $29.53 within the next 4.5 hours, before correcting to a 24-hour close of $28.68 by 12:00 ET. The total traded volume over the period was approximately 2,330,642.49 AVAX, with a notional turnover of $66,219,043. The 24-hour OHLC action shows a distinct reversal pattern after reaching key psychological resistance near $29.50.

Structure & Formations

The candlestick pattern reveals a sharp bullish impulse followed by a bearish retracement. Key resistance levels formed at $29.50–29.60, with support consolidating around $28.60–28.70. A notable bearish engulfing pattern emerged at $29.02–29.05 in the late hours of the session, indicating potential short-term weakness. A morning doji at $28.90–28.93 suggests indecision, while a long upper shadow on the $29.52–29.08 candle indicates rejection at the top end of the recent rally.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart were strongly bullish during the early session, aligning with price action above $29.00. However, as the asset corrected, both EMAs flattened, and the 50-period line began to slope downward, signaling a potential shift in momentum. Daily 50/100/200-period SMAs are all below the current price, supporting a longer-term bullish bias.

MACD & RSI

MACD crossed above the signal line with strong positive divergence in the early hours, confirming the bullish impulse. However, RSI briefly spiked into overbought territory (75–85) and then corrected into neutral territory, suggesting a possible exhaustion of the rally. The recent pullback has pulled RSI down to 48–52, indicating a balanced market sentiment. MACD is now in a consolidating phase, reflecting reduced momentum.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the peak rally, with Bollinger Bands expanding beyond a 2.5% range. Price peaked near the upper band at $29.53 before rolling back toward the midband. In the final hours, the bands have begun to contract, suggesting a period of consolidation. Price is currently hovering slightly above the 20-period midband, a sign that the asset may test the lower band in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume remained above average throughout the early and mid-session, with the highest notional turnover occurring between 16:30 and 18:00 ET. As price corrected, volume dropped, with the final 4 hours showing a 30% reduction. The volume profile suggests that the initial bullish breakout was well-supported, but the subsequent pullback lacked enough selling pressure to confirm a bearish breakout. Price-volume divergence during the late hours implies a potential reversal may be pending.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci levels to the recent 15-minute swing from $27.62 to $29.53, the $28.80 level corresponds to the 61.8% retracement. Price has tested this level multiple times in the late hours and has not yet broken below. On the daily chart, the $28.60–28.70 range aligns with the 38.2% retracement of the broader bullish trend from mid-September. A break below $28.50 could trigger a deeper pullback to the $28.20–28.30 zone.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the recent price behavior, a potential backtest strategy could focus on a breakout above the $29.50–29.60 resistance range, with a stop-loss just below the 20-period EMA. A confirmed breakout could target $30.20–30.50, leveraging bullish momentum and a bullish divergence in the MACD. Alternatively, a short trade could be considered if the price breaks the $28.60–28.50 support zone, with a target near $28.20 and a stop just above the 50-period EMA. This strategy would benefit from high-volume confirmation on the breakout candles and RSI divergence for entry validation.