Market Overview: Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) on 2025-09-26

• Price opened at $30.28 and closed at $27.89, down 4.6% amid prolonged bearish momentum.
• Volatility expanded as price fell from $30.28 to $27.07, with a low of $27.07 near a potential support cluster.
• Notional turnover rose to $8.5M at the 24-hour low, confirming bearish sentiment.
• RSI hit oversold territory, while MACD diverged from price, hinting at potential near-term bounce.
• Key 15-min support appears near $27.50 and resistance at $29.00–$29.36 from recent failed attempts.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $30.28 on 2025-09-25 at 12:00 ET and closed at $27.89 on 2025-09-26 at 12:00 ET. Price action saw a 24-hour high of $30.28 and low of $27.07, with a total volume of 2,839,620.99 AVAX and a notional turnover of $79,256,602. A bearish trend continued with strong selling pressure after 18:00 ET, accelerating toward the session’s close.

Structure & Formations

Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern at $30.28–$29.97 on 16:15 ET and confirmed bearish momentum with a subsequent breakdown through key support at $29.21. A potential double-bottom structure appears forming near $27.50–$27.58, though it requires a close above $27.77 to confirm. A long lower shadow at 09:45 ET and a doji at 11:45 ET indicate temporary consolidation, with bears regaining control afterward.

Moving Averages

Short-term momentum, as indicated by the 20 and 50-period 15-min moving averages, has been bearish since late 19:00 ET. The daily 50-EMA sits near $28.95, with the 100 and 200 EMAs forming a bearish cluster at $29.20–$29.30. Price closed below all these levels, reinforcing the bearish bias and increasing the probability of a continuation into $27.40–$27.50.

MACD & RSI

MACD turned negative at 17:30 ET and continued to trend lower, with the histogram showing bearish momentum. RSI dropped into oversold territory below 30 at the 24-hour low, suggesting a potential rebound from $27.21. However, price failed to follow RSI’s bounce, indicating weak conviction in a near-term reversal. Divergence between RSI and price hints at a possible continuation lower, but a close above $27.77 could trigger a short-term retracement.

Bollinger Bands

Price broke below the lower Bollinger band at $29.24 and expanded volatility, reaching a distance of 1.2σ by 22:00 ET. Volatility later compressed between $27.90–$28.20, but price failed to hold the upper band, indicating a lack of follow-through in bullish attempts. A retest of the lower band at $27.20–$27.30 may offer a short-term buying opportunity, though bears remain dominant.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to over 300,000 AVAX at 18:15 ET, coinciding with the breakdown to $28.21. A final spike at 14:45 ET confirmed the 24-hour low at $27.07 with a turnover of $8.5M. While volume expanded during the bearish wave, price failed to follow a corresponding increase in turnover during early recovery attempts, signaling weak conviction from buyers. A reversal may require higher volume on the next upmove.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 15-min chart, the key 61.8% Fibonacci level at $29.00–$29.12 has acted as a resistance cluster, with price failing to hold above it after 19:30 ET. Daily Fibonacci levels from the $30.28 high to $27.07 low place 38.2% at $28.65 and 61.8% at $28.45, which appear as potential consolidation zones. A close above $28.45 could trigger a retest of $28.80–$28.95, but bearish divergence makes this unlikely without strong volume confirmation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy suggests a long-biased approach when price retests key Fibonacci levels at $28.45–$28.65 with a confirmed close above the 50-period EMA on the 15-minute chart, accompanied by a bullish RSI divergence. A stop-loss should be placed below the 61.8% Fibonacci level at $27.90, with a target at $28.80–$29.00. This setup would validate a bearish retracement followed by a potential bullish continuation. Given the current bearish momentum, this scenario is more likely if price manages to hold above $27.77 with increasing turnover.