Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) – 2025-09-24

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• AVAXUSDT opened at $35.63 and traded between $33.43 and $34.81, closing at $34.49 amid moderate volume.• Price formed a bearish engulfing pattern followed by a key rebound, suggesting short-term volatility and indecision.• RSI indicates oversold territory at 30, while MACD remains negative, signaling potential for a short-term bounce.

Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) opened at $35.63 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET and closed at $34.49 by the same time on 2025-09-24. The pair saw a 24-hour high of $34.81 and a low of $33.43, with total volume reaching 1,280,963.29 and total turnover of approximately $43,197,321.37. The price trend reflected a key bearish reversal early on, followed by a multi-hour consolidation phase.

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages show a bearish crossover, with the 50SMA below the 20SMA, supporting a short-term downward bias. The daily chart remains above its 50DMA, indicating the broader trend is still intact despite recent weakness. Notable support levels include $34.20 and $33.60, with $33.43 marking a recent swing low.

The Relative Strength Index (RSI) reached 30 at 03:00 ET, a potential signal for a short-term rebound. However, the MACD remained in negative territory, suggesting continued bearish momentum. The price tested the lower Bollinger Band for several hours, with volatility expanding as the band width widened. On the 15-minute timeframe, the price appears to have found temporary support around the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the early bearish move.

Volume increased significantly around the key low at $33.43, confirming the support level’s strength. However, price and volume diverged slightly after 04:00 ET as the price rebounded without a corresponding volume surge. This divergence suggests caution for further upside. A breakout above $34.81 would target the next resistance at $35.10, while a breakdown below $33.43 could test $33.00.

Backtest Hypothesis

The suggested backtesting strategy involves entering a short position when the 20SMA crosses below the 50SMA (death cross) on the 15-minute chart and confirming the move with an RSI reading above 70 (overbought condition). A stop-loss is placed above the most recent swing high, and a take-profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of the downward swing. A long position would be triggered after a bullish crossover on the same timeframe, with RSI below 30 (oversold), and a stop-loss placed below the nearest support. Based on today's data, such a strategy would have entered a short position during the bearish engulfing pattern and could have captured the subsequent pullback. The effectiveness of this approach depends on consistent formation of the signals across a larger sample period.