Market Overview for Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) on 2025-09-18

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• AVAX/USDT surges 37.3% in 24 hours, forming bullish patterns and breaking key resistances after a late-night breakout.
• High volume surges above $100M in early hours, validating strength in price action and confirming momentum.
• RSI remains in overbought territory (70+), indicating potential for pullback or continuation.
• Price remains above 20- and 50-period moving averages on 15-minute chart, reinforcing bullish bias.
• Bollinger Bands show volatility expansion following a breakout, suggesting increased short-term activity.

The Avalanche/Tether (AVAXUSDT) pair opened at $29.50 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and closed at $32.77 by the same time on 2025-09-18. The price reached a high of $33.14 and dipped to a low of $29.40 during the 24-hour period. The total trading volume was approximately 1.12 million AVAX, translating into a turnover of roughly $37.6 million, indicating strong interest and market participation.

Structure & Formations

The 15-minute chart reveals a strong bullish bias throughout the night, with a decisive breakout above a key resistance around $30.00, followed by a continuation above $32.00. Key support levels were identified at $29.40 and $29.60, both of which were tested but not broken. Notable patterns include a bullish engulfing pattern at the $29.52–$29.64 level, signaling a shift in momentum, and a long white candle in the early hours, confirming buying pressure. A potential bearish reversal doji appears at $33.00–$33.01 in the morning, suggesting a possible pause in upward momentum.

Moving Averages & Bollinger Bands

On the 15-minute timeframe, the price has remained consistently above the 20- and 50-period moving averages, with the 50-period line acting as a dynamic support during pullbacks. The 50- and 100-period daily lines suggest further upside potential if the current trend continues. Bollinger Bands show a clear expansion following the breakout from $30.00, indicating increased volatility. Price currently resides near the upper band at $33.00–$33.14, suggesting it could consolidate or retest the band for confirmation of its strength.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has crossed above the signal line, indicating bullish momentum, while the histogram shows increasing positive divergence. The RSI, currently at 74, suggests overbought conditions. However, given the strong volume and price action, the overbought reading may persist for several hours. A pullback into the 55–65 RSI range could serve as an entry point for further upward movement.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked sharply in the early hours of 2025-09-18, with a 15-minute candle showing over $3.6 million in turnover. This aligns with the breakout from $30.00 and confirms strong participation. Notable divergence appears in the late morning, with declining volume despite continued price movement, suggesting potential exhaustion. However, the overall volume profile remains healthy, with no major bearish divergence detected.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the recent swing low at $29.40 and high at $33.14 show 38.2% at $31.68 and 61.8% at $30.56. The current price at $32.77 has already moved above the 50% retracement level and is approaching the 38.2% mark. A retest of the 61.8% level is possible if the price consolidates, which could serve as a support for further upside.

Backtest Hypothesis

Based on the observed technical setup, a potential backtesting strategy could involve entering long positions on a bullish engulfing candle formation, confirmed by a breakout above the upper Bollinger Band and a MACD crossover. Stops could be placed below the 50-period moving average, and targets could be set at the next Fibonacci level of $31.68 and beyond. This strategy aligns with the current bullish momentum and could be tested using historical data to assess risk-reward ratios and win rates under similar conditions.