Market Overview for AVA/Bitcoin on 2025-10-04

• AVA/Bitcoin declined by ~3.8% over 24 hours, closing near a key support level at 4.28e-06.
• Volume surged in late trading, confirming bearish momentum as price broke below Bollinger Band midline.
• RSI and MACD signaled bearish divergence, with RSI hitting 30, suggesting potential oversold conditions.
• A notable doji appeared near 4.29e-06, indicating indecision amid tightening price range.
• Turnover was uneven, with spikes during sharp dips confirming selling pressure and weak buying interest.

The 24-hour period for AVA/Bitcoin opened at 4.39e-06 on 2025-10-03 at 12:00 ET and closed at 4.28e-06 on 2025-10-04 at 12:00 ET. The AVABTC pair reached a high of 4.42e-06 and a low of 4.27e-06, with a total volume of 24,933.3 BTC and a notional turnover of approximately 108.16 AVA. The price action shows a clear bearish bias, especially in the last hours of the session.

Key support appears to be consolidating around 4.28e-06, with a potential retracement target at 4.15e-06 (61.8% of the recent 15-min swing). Resistance is forming near 4.34e-06, where a prior rejection occurred. A doji at 4.29e-06 suggests traders are hesitant to push the price lower after reaching this level. The formation of multiple lower highs and narrowing Bollinger Bands indicates decreasing volatility and the possibility of a breakout.

MACD has turned bearish, with the line crossing below the signal line in late trading and remaining negative. RSI, at 30, indicates the pair may be oversold, but confirmation of a reversal requires a bullish candlestick pattern or a breakout above 4.34e-06. Bollinger Bands are currently tightening, signaling a possible continuation of the current trend or an imminent reversal. Volume has spiked during key sell-offs, particularly around 4.31e-06, suggesting strong bearish conviction.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-min chart both crossed below the price, reinforcing the bearish trend. The 200-period daily MA remains above the current price, suggesting a medium-term bearish outlook. Fibonacci retracements from the high of 4.42e-06 to the low of 4.27e-06 place 4.33e-06 at 38.2% and 4.30e-06 at 61.8%, both of which are potential reversal or consolidation areas.

Backtest Hypothesis
The suggested backtesting strategy involves entering short positions when RSI drops below 30 and volume spikes above 3x the 15-minute average. A stop-loss is placed above the nearest 15-minute high, and a take-profit is set at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the latest bearish swing. This approach aligns with today’s price action, where RSI and volume confirmed bearish momentum. A backtest using this setup on historical AVABTC data from the past three months could validate the strategy's effectiveness in low-volatility bearish environments.