Market Overview for Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT)

• Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) broke below 0.0395 support, closing at 0.0393 after a bearish breakdown from the 0.0404–0.0398 range.
• Volume surged to 799k–810k between 0.0407 and 0.0393, confirming distribution before the drop.
• RSI and MACD showed weakening momentum, with RSI dipping into oversold territory below 30.
• Bollinger Bands widened as price dropped, indicating rising volatility and potential reversal.
• 24-hour turnover exceeded $400k, with price action suggesting risk of further consolidation or test of 0.038–0.039 support.

Opening Narrative

Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) opened the 24-hour window at 0.0399, with a high of 0.0410 and low of 0.0379 before closing at 0.0393. Total traded volume amounted to 9,597,035.1, while notional turnover reached approximately $381,722. The price action reflects a bearish breakdown from a key consolidation range into a lower volatility structure.

Structure & Formations

Price action on the 15-minute chart showed a bearish breakdown below a critical 0.0395 support level. The formation included a large bearish candle on 2025-10-30 12:30 ET (0.0393 close), which engulfed the preceding bullish bar, signaling a potential continuation of the downward trend. A potential support zone now appears at 0.038–0.039, where prior 15-minute candles formed consolidation clusters. A bearish divergence in RSI and a breakdown in the 20-period moving average suggest that the pair may continue to trade lower in the near term.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a bearish crossover, with the 20SMA currently at 0.0397 and the 50SMA at 0.0402. On the daily chart, the 50-period, 100-period, and 200-period moving averages show a broader bearish bias, as the price remains below all three indicators. The 50SMA on the daily chart is near 0.0410, indicating a potential short-term resistance above the current price.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line is in negative territory with a bearish crossover, suggesting continued downward momentum. The RSI is currently at 31, well within oversold territory, indicating a possible short-term bounce could occur. However, the divergence between the RSI and price suggests that the move lower is still in its early stages. A reversal signal may appear if RSI fails to move above 40 with a rising close, reinforcing the bearish bias.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands have expanded over the last 24 hours, reflecting increasing volatility. The price broke below the lower band at 0.0393, indicating a strong bearish signal. The widening of the bands suggests a potential for a mean reversion bounce, but only if the RSI and MACD show signs of stabilizing. If the price remains below 0.0393, the bands may continue to expand, signaling a deepening bearish phase.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked on the breakdown candle (12:30 ET), reaching 228,150.4, and again during the 15:15–15:30 ET period at 230,333.0. These spikes confirm the bearish move, particularly when paired with a corresponding drop in price. However, a divergence appears later in the 24-hour window with declining turnover and relatively higher prices, hinting at potential exhaustion in the downward move. The overall volume profile supports the bearish narrative but suggests caution for further short-term declines.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the key 0.0407–0.0393 swing, the 38.2% level sits at 0.0400 and the 61.8% level at 0.0397. Price briefly retested 0.0398–0.0399 around the 61.8% level before continuing lower. A retest of 0.0397–0.0400 may occur, where buyers could attempt to defend the pair. The 0.0393 close now acts as a short-term support level, and a break below it would target the next Fibonacci level at 0.0389–0.0386.

Backtest Hypothesis

To validate the bearish signal, we propose a backtest of the Bearish Engulfing pattern near the 0.0395–0.0397 support zone for AUDIOUSDT. Given the price activity observed in this window, the strategy should identify all Bearish Engulfing occurrences and measure their performance in the following 1–3 candles. If the pattern reliably precedes a 1–3% drop, it could be used to reinforce stop-loss and entry strategies for the next bearish wave. Adjusting the query to include kpattern = bearish_engulfing and filtering for 15-minute candles near the specified support level will yield the necessary data for the back-test.