Market Overview for Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) on 2025-11-11

• Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) traded in a 0.0383–0.0414 range, closing near 0.0389 after a sharp midday rebound.
• Momentum diverged in late hours with a bearish RSI divergence and a fading Bollinger Band squeeze.
• Volume surged during the 12:30–14:45 ET window, confirming a breakout attempt but failing to hold gains.

Opening Narrative

Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) opened at 0.0389 on 2025-11-10 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 0.0414 and a low of 0.0383 before closing at 0.0389 on 2025-11-11 at 12:00 ET. The 24-hour trading session saw a total volume of 11,145,872.3 and a notional turnover of approximately $435,569, calculated using the closing prices and volumes.

Structure & Formations

Price action on AUDIOUSDT exhibited a bearish reversal pattern around 14:45–16:30 ET, with a strong rejection from the 0.0391–0.0393 resistance range. A bearish engulfing pattern formed during this period, followed by a long lower shadow candle that indicated aggressive selling. The 0.0388–0.0390 range acted as a key support cluster, successfully tested three times during the day. On the 15-minute chart, the price found temporary support at the 20 EMA before breaking below it in the final trading hours.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, price broke below the 20 EMA during the last 4 hours, confirming a short-term bearish bias. The 50 EMA acted as a dynamic resistance during the early part of the session, with price failing to close above it after 03:30 ET. On the daily chart, the price closed below the 50 EMA (0.0393) and the 100 EMA (0.0396), indicating a weakening trend.

MACD & RSI

The 15-minute MACD crossed below zero during the afternoon session, signaling a bearish momentum shift. The RSI dropped into the oversold territory (below 30) during the 16:00–17:00 ET window, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce, though divergence was noted between price and momentum in the closing hours. A bearish RSI divergence formed after 14:30 ET, as price made higher highs while the RSI formed lower highs.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 12:30–14:00 ET window, with the Bollinger Bands widening to their widest point of the day. Price traded outside the upper band briefly at 12:45 ET before collapsing back into the band. In the final 2 hours, the bands began to contract again, but price failed to find a breakout, staying within the 0.0386–0.0392 range. A retest of the lower band occurred after 16:00 ET, with price finding limited support.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically between 12:30 and 14:45 ET, with the highest 15-minute volume of 9,808,426.3 observed at 12:30 ET, coinciding with a breakout attempt above 0.0393. However, the price failed to follow through, and volume began to taper off after 16:00 ET. Notional turnover mirrored this pattern, peaking at $101,935 at 12:30 ET but declining as momentum faded.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key Fibonacci levels from the 0.0383–0.0414 swing showed price finding resistance at the 61.8% retracement level of approximately 0.0397. A retest of the 38.2% retracement at 0.0392 was confirmed during the 14:30–16:00 ET window. These levels acted as short-term barriers, with the 50% retracement (0.03985) appearing to be the critical level to watch in the next session.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy focused on short-term price action, using the close price and a fixed holding period of 3 trading days. Despite no stop-loss or take-profit parameters, the test revealed mixed signals. The strong midday breakout attempt aligns with a potential long entry, but the subsequent failure to hold above key moving averages and the bearish divergence in RSI suggest caution. This highlights the importance of aligning entries with both volume and momentum signals in volatile environments like AUDIOUSDT.