Market Overview for Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) – 2025-10-22

• Price declined from 0.0434 to 0.0401, with a 7.2% drop in 24 hours.
• RSI and MACD indicate oversold conditions, with bearish momentum slowing.
• Volume spiked during the 0.0401–0.0407 range, suggesting potential short-term support.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, suggesting overextension.
• Fibonacci retracement at 0.0405–0.0407 may serve as a key near-term barrier.

Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) opened at 0.0430 on 2025-10-21 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.0401 on 2025-10-22 at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.0437 and low of 0.0401 over the 24-hour period. Total volume reached 13,368,699.0 and notional turnover totaled 534.345 USD, reflecting moderate activity amid a sharp bearish move.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a bearish continuation pattern over the last 24 hours. A key support level appears to have formed at 0.0405–0.0407, where price found a temporary floor after a sharp drop from 0.0437. A few candlestick formations suggest exhaustion in the short-term bear trend. A long lower shadow on the 05:30 ET candle and a doji near 0.0406 indicate possible near-term reversal or consolidation. Resistance appears to be clustered around 0.0410–0.0415, which were previously tested on the way down and could serve as a short-term ceiling if the trend reverses.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, reinforcing the bearish bias. The 50-period line currently sits around 0.0411, while the 20-period line is slightly below at 0.0408. This suggests the short-term trend remains negative, and a close above the 50-period MA may signal a potential reversal. Over the daily timeframe, the 50-period and 200-period moving averages are both above current levels, suggesting the longer-term trend remains bearish unless a strong recovery is sustained.

MACD & RSI

The MACD histogram has been negative for most of the 24-hour period, with a small contraction indicating that bearish momentum may be slowing. The MACD line crossed below the signal line earlier in the session, reinforcing the bearish setup. RSI has dipped into the 25–30 range, a classic oversold threshold, and is near its lowest level of the period. This suggests the potential for a short-term bounce, but a meaningful reversal would require a strong move above 40–45.

Bollinger Bands & Volatility

Volatility expanded significantly as the price moved downward, with the Bollinger Bands widening in the 0.0430–0.0401 range. Currently, the price is near the lower band, signaling overextension. A retest of this area may trigger a bounce. However, if the price breaks below the lower band, it could signal a deeper pullback. The bands are still relatively wide, indicating that volatility remains elevated and could continue unless a consolidation phase begins.

Volume & Turnover

Volume was most active between 05:00–09:00 ET and again in the final hours before 12:00 ET. The peak volume occurred during the critical 0.0405–0.0407 support zone, where price found a temporary floor. Notional turnover rose to 534.345 USD, suggesting significant participation during the decline. However, price action did not confirm a strong rebound from these levels, and the volume divergence suggests a possible continuation of the bearish move unless a strong reversal candle forms.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement to the recent 15-minute swing from 0.0437 to 0.0401, the 61.8% level is at 0.0411 and the 38.2% level at 0.0423. These levels represent key psychological barriers. The 0.0411 level has already been tested twice, indicating potential resistance, while the 0.0405–0.0407 area corresponds to the 78.6% retracement and could act as a short-term support. A break below 0.0401 would push the price into the 100% extension zone, potentially testing 0.0393.

Backtest Hypothesis

The recent action on AUDIOUSDT aligns with a potential long-entry backtest strategy rooted in RSI and Fibonacci levels. For instance, the RSI dropping to oversold territory (below 30) and the price nearing a key 78.6% retracement level at 0.0405–0.0407 could be used as entry triggers. A systematic approach would include entering a long position at the close of a 15-minute candle where RSI dips below 30 and price is within 0.5% of the 78.6% Fibonacci level. A sell signal could be generated when the price reaches the next Fibonacci level—say the 61.8% retracement at 0.0411—or when RSI exits the oversold zone and enters the 40–45 range. To define “sell at next support level,” we might use a pivot low formed during the last 24 hours or apply a 5% stop-loss to protect against further declines. This strategy would require historical RSI, Fibonacci retracement, and pivot-level data to backtest from 2022-01-01 to 2025-10-22.