Market Overview for Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) – 2025-09-21

• Price action on AUDIO/USDT remained range-bound with a minor decline near 0.0612.
• Volatility dipped in late hours, signaling consolidation after earlier sharp intraday swings.
• No strong bullish or bearish momentum observed, with RSI lingering around neutral levels.
• Volume surged during the 15-minute period ending at 09:45 ET, but failed to drive a directional breakout.
• Bollinger Bands tightened near 0.0613–0.0618, indicating potential for a price break in the next 24 hours.

At 12:00 ET-1 on 2025-09-20, Audius/Tether (AUDIOUSDT) opened at 0.0622, reached a high of 0.0621, and a low of 0.0612, closing at 0.0612 at 12:00 ET on 2025-09-21. The 24-hour volume totaled 3,147,425.8, with a notional turnover of approximately $196,258.74.

Structure & Formations

The past 24 hours revealed a bearish bias with a consolidation phase developing near the 0.0614–0.0618 range. Key support emerged at 0.0612, where a hammer candle on 09:45 ET-1 and 03:30 ET suggested possible buying interest. Resistance appeared at 0.0618–0.0620, where repeated attempts to break higher failed, forming a bearish flag pattern. A doji appeared at 08:30 ET, signaling indecision after earlier bearish pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20SMA moved slightly lower from 0.0619 to 0.0617, while the 50SMA hovered around 0.0616–0.0618. The 50/100/200SMA on the daily chart showed a slight bearish bias, with price currently below all three averages, indicating short-term bearish momentum.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line in the final hours, confirming bearish momentum. RSI oscillated between 45 and 55, indicating neutral to weak momentum with no overbought or oversold conditions. A slight bearish divergence appeared in RSI during the 08:00–10:00 ET period, suggesting a potential continuation of the downward bias.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded during the 09:45–10:00 ET and 15:15–16:00 ET windows, with price breaking above and below the bands. Price has since retracted and is trading near the middle band at 0.0615, with the upper and lower bands currently at 0.0618 and 0.0612, respectively. This suggests a potential for a breakout or continuation pattern in the next 24 hours.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in three key windows: 09:45 ET-1, 05:45 ET, and 15:15 ET, with the largest volume at 09:45 ET-1 (76,925.2). However, price failed to follow through on these volume surges, indicating a potential bearish trap. Notional turnover aligned with volume increases but failed to confirm a strong directional bias.

Fibonacci Retracements

A key 38.2% retracement level lies at 0.0615, with 61.8% at 0.0612, which has held as strong support in the last 24 hours. Recent hourly swings showed the 0.0616–0.0619 range acting as a critical psychological level, with price frequently testing this area before retreating.

Backtest Hypothesis

The proposed backtest strategy leverages the 15-minute timeframe and relies on MACD crossover and Bollinger Band squeeze as entry signals. When the MACD line crosses above the signal line (bullish) and price is within a tight Bollinger Band range, the strategy enters a long position, aiming to capture breakout momentum. The stop loss is placed below the 38.2% Fibonacci level, while the take profit targets the 61.8% retracement. Based on the recent consolidation, this setup could offer a high-probability entry near 0.0612–0.0613, where both the Bollinger Bands and Fibonacci levels align. A test of this strategy on past 24-hour data would require filtering for tight volatility periods and confirming signal consistency across multiple timeframes.