Market Overview for Atletico De Madrid Fan Token/Tether (ATMUSDT)

Summary
• ATMUSDT declined 1.2% in 24 hours with a bearish close at $0.977.
• Price tested support near $0.965–0.970, with volume surging after the 04:45 ET breakdown.
• MACD turned negative, RSI below 35 suggests oversold conditions, but bearish momentum remains intact.

ATMUSDT opened at $1.01 on 2025-11-13 at 12:00 ET and closed at $0.977 by 12:00 ET on 2025-11-14. The pair hit a high of $1.013 and a low of $0.964 during the 24-hour period, with a total trading volume of 316,307.8 and notional turnover of $309,277.5. The move appears to reflect a breakdown from a short-term trading range, with key support tested near $0.965–0.970.

Over the 24-hour period, ATMUSDT formed several bearish candlestick patterns including a Bearish Engulfing pattern in the early morning and a Bearish Harami during the afternoon session. Price has been trading below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart, while the daily 50/100/200 SMA lines suggest a bearish alignment, with the 50-SMA below both the 100 and 200-SMA.

MACD turned negative around 05:00 ET, signaling a weakening in bullish momentum, while RSI dropped below 35 after 04:45 ET, suggesting potential oversold conditions. However, the price failed to form a bullish reversal pattern during that time, which may indicate a lack of buying interest. Bollinger Bands showed a moderate contraction in the early morning, but expanded after the breakdown, with ATMUSDT trading near the lower band for much of the session.

Volume surged during the breakdown below the $0.975 level, especially around 04:45 ET when the price dropped from $0.967 to $0.960. This suggests strong bearish conviction at that time. Turnover and price remained aligned, with no notable divergences detected. Fibonacci retracement levels from the recent high of $1.013 to the low of $0.964 show 38.2% at $0.989 and 61.8% at $0.973, with the current price sitting near the 61.8% level.

The current technical setup appears to favor a continuation of the bearish trend, but oversold RSI could signal a short-term bounce. Investors should monitor Fibonacci levels and key support at $0.965–0.970 for potential follow-through in the next 24 hours. A break below this level may trigger further downside toward $0.95.

Backtest Hypothesis

To test the robustness of a potential bearish strategy based on today’s price action, a backtest using the Bearish Engulfing candlestick pattern as an entry signal and swing-high resistance as an exit rule could be implemented. A 15-minute chart interval would be most appropriate given the rapid price movement observed. A Bearish Engulfing is defined as a candle with a higher open and lower close than the prior candle, with the body fully engulfing the previous candle’s body. The “next resistance” would be the first swing high (a daily high) exceeding the 20-day high after entry. A 1% stop-loss and 5% take-profit may be added to control risk. This backtest would span from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-14, and performance metrics such as win rate, average return, and Sharpe ratio would be assessed to determine the viability of the strategy.