Market Overview: Aster/Tether (ASTERUSDT) on 2025-11-13

Summary
• Price closed at 1.125 after a 24-hour range from 1.091 to 1.150.
• Momentum weakened, with RSI trending below 50 and no clear overbought/oversold signals.
• Volatility and volume both spiked during a key intraday reversal.

ASTERUSDT opened at 1.124 on 2025-11-12 12:00 ET and closed at 1.125 on 2025-11-13 12:00 ET, with a high of 1.150 and a low of 1.091 during the period. Total volume for the 24-hour window was 150,836,093.13, and notional turnover was 169,939,917.04, based on cumulative volume and average prices.

Structure & Formations

Price action revealed a bearish reversal pattern around 1.130, confirmed by a large red candle at 07:45 ET after a bullish push to the high. A descending triangle formation on the 15-min chart provided temporary resistance at 1.140 and support at 1.115. A doji appeared around 03:15 ET near 1.114, signaling indecision and potential for a short-term reversal.

Moving Averages

On the 15-min chart, the 20-period and 50-period SMAs showed a bearish crossover around 19:00 ET, with price subsequently testing the 20SMA as a dynamic resistance level. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) were aligned in a bearish bias, with the 50DMA at 1.120 acting as a key psychological level for near-term buyers.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line crossed below the signal line at 19:00 ET, confirming a bearish turn. RSI hovered around 50 throughout the day, suggesting a lack of strong directional momentum. By the close, RSI had dipped to 49.8, hinting at a possible retest of lower support levels before a potential bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Price reached the upper band at 1.150 during a mid-day rally but failed to sustain above it. Volatility remained relatively high, with the bands widening slightly after 05:00 ET. The 20-period Bollinger Band width peaked at 0.016, indicating increasing uncertainty and potential for a reversal.

Volume & Turnover

Volume peaked at 5.0 million at 23:45 ET as price approached a critical resistance level, but failed to break through. Turnover diverged with price at several intervals, notably after 06:00 ET when volume spiked but price consolidated sideways. This divergence signals weakening conviction among buyers.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key 15-min retracement levels at 1.130 (38.2%) and 1.135 (61.8%) acted as psychological levels. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement from the recent high (1.150) to low (1.091) aligned with the 50DMA at 1.120. Price found support at the 50% level (1.120), suggesting potential for a short-term bounce or consolidation.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy, tested from 2022-01-01 to 2025-11-12 using close-to-close prices, yielded a negative total return of –0.83%, an annualized return of –5.99%, and a Sharpe ratio of –2.72. The MACD-based strategy, using a 1-day holding period, appears to underperform in the current low-momentum environment. While the market structure remains neutral, the poor performance of the strategy highlights the need to revisit assumptions, such as incorporating tighter stop-loss or take-profit rules, or re-evaluating holding periods to better align with current volatility and trend direction.