Market Overview: Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) 24-Hour Analysis (2025-10-12)

• Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) closed 1.3% lower at 3.76e-05 after forming bearish inside bars.
• Volatility surged as price dropped from 3.89e-05 to 3.59e-05 amid uneven volume distribution.
• RSI (14) and MACD confirmed bearish momentum with no sign of oversold conditions.
• Price remains below the 50-period and 20-period moving averages, signaling continued downward pressure.

Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) opened at 3.76e-05 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 3.96e-05 and falling to a low of 3.57e-05, before closing at 3.76e-05 on 2025-10-12 at 12:00 ET. Total trading volume for the 24-hour period was 16,067.02 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $599.57 (using average close price for calculation).

The price action over the last 24 hours was characterized by a significant bearish shift. After forming a short-lived bullish pattern around 02:00 ET with a high of 3.89e-05, the pair began a downward correction that lasted until early evening. A bearish inside bar pattern formed around 11:30 ET before a modest rally pulled the price back slightly. Despite the bounce, bearish momentum persisted, with the 50-period and 20-period moving averages remaining above the price, indicating a potential continuation of the downtrend in the near term.

Bollinger Bands showed a significant widening as the price dropped below the lower band late in the day, signaling increased volatility. A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the previous bullish move sits near 3.72e-05, which has served as a temporary floor. On the RSI chart, the indicator declined into the 40–50 range, suggesting a bearish bias without reaching oversold territory, which could imply further downward exploration. MACD remained negative with a shrinking histogram, reinforcing the bearish momentum.

Volume spiked during the key bearish leg from 19:30 to 21:00 ET, with a single candle at 19:30 ET carrying a volume of 2,214.02 units—nearly 14% of the total 24-hour volume. Notional turnover followed a similar pattern, confirming the strength of the move. However, volume during the recent bullish bounce was relatively low, which may indicate a lack of conviction in the reversal.

The formation of bearish inside bars and the pullback to the 61.8% Fibonacci level suggest that bulls may test these levels for potential reversals in the coming 24 hours. However, with the RSI not reaching oversold conditions and the MACD remaining negative, the likelihood of a strong continuation of the current downward trend is high. Investors should watch for a break below the 3.72e-05 level, which could trigger further selling pressure.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy is based on a confluence of bearish candlestick patterns and momentum divergence. A potential trading rule could be to enter short positions upon confirmation of an inside bar pattern followed by a close below the 20-period moving average. A stop-loss could be placed above the recent high of 3.89e-05, with a target set at the next Fibonacci level of 3.618% at 3.67e-05. Given the volume confirmation and momentum signals observed in the last 24 hours, this strategy could have yielded favorable results in a backtest during this period.