Market Overview: Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) on 2025-12-21

Summary
• Price drifted lower on subdued volume, closing near session lows.
• A 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level appears to have held near 3.89e-05.
• Volatility expanded in early morning hours before stabilizing.
• RSI entered oversold territory, suggesting short-term bearish exhaustion.

Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) opened at 3.93e-05 on 2025-12-20 12:00 ET, reached a high of 4.04e-05, and closed at 3.89e-05 by 12:00 ET on 2025-12-21. Total volume amounted to 2,129.33 and turnover was approximately 83.77 BTC.

Structure & Key Levels

Price action showed a bearish breakdown from 4.04e-05, with a Fibonacci 61.8% retracement near 3.89e-05 acting as a temporary floor. A potential support level forms at 3.86e-05, with 3.82e-05 next in line. A key resistance appears at 3.94e-05.

Trend & Momentum

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 5-minute chart showed a bearish crossover, reinforcing the downtrend. MACD remained negative with a flattening histogram, suggesting declining bearish momentum. RSI dropped to oversold levels near 30, hinting at a potential short-term reversal or consolidation.

Volatility and Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Band contraction occurred in the overnight hours before a sharp expansion, indicating increased volatility. Price currently trades near the lower band, consistent with bearish momentum, though a breakout above the midline could signal a reversal.

Volume and Turnover Dynamics

Despite a sharp move lower, volume remained moderate, with a large 5-minute candle at 22:30 ET showing a high of 4.02e-05. Turnover and price moved in tandem, confirming the bearish bias. Divergence between price and volume was not observed.

The pair may test the 3.86e-05 support in the near term, with a potential bounce or a continuation of the decline depending on volume confirmation. Traders should remain cautious of a reversal if RSI shows a bullish divergence or price closes above 3.94e-05.