Market Overview for Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) – 2025-10-03

• Price declined over 24 hours, closing near a key support level.
• RSI and MACD signal weakening momentum with potential oversold conditions.
• Volatility expanded mid-day before consolidating at lower levels.
• Bollinger Bands show price near the lower band, signaling possible bounce.
• Volume increased during the downward move, confirming bearish bias.

At 12:00 ET–1 on 2025-10-03, Arweave/Bitcoin (ARBTC) opened at $0.0000497 and closed at $0.0000489 by 12:00 ET. The pair reached a high of $0.0000515 and a low of $0.0000488. Total volume over the 24-hour window was 5,541.36 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $273.84 USD.

Structure & Formations

ARBTC displayed a bearish bias throughout the 24-hour period, with the price trending lower on 15-minute candles. A key support level was established around $0.0000489, where price found temporary stability after a sharp drop. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged early in the morning as the pair broke below the previous session’s low. Later in the day, a long lower shadow appeared, suggesting some short-covering or buying interest at the lower end of the range. No strong reversal patterns were observed, but the price hovering near support may hint at a potential bounce if buyers step in.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both trended lower, reinforcing the bearish momentum. The 20SMA crossed below the 50SMA, forming a death cross that signals a deepening downtrend. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200-period moving averages are all in a descending formation, indicating continued bearish bias. Price remains below all major moving averages, suggesting that short-term and long-term sellers are in control.

MACD & RSI

The MACD crossed into negative territory and remained below the signal line, confirming a bearish trend. Momentum has slowed in recent hours, but the MACD’s negative divergence with price suggests further downside potential. The RSI dropped into the oversold zone for a short period, but it did not stay there long enough to trigger a strong reversal signal. A rebound above 30 would be needed to suggest a potential bottoming process, though a sustained close above this level is unlikely without increased volume.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded mid-day following a sharp decline, causing the Bollinger Bands to widen. Price found a temporary floor near the lower band, a common area for retracements in mean-reverting environments. The narrowing of the bands in the late afternoon suggests a period of consolidation, but without a strong breakout above the upper band, bearish pressure remains intact.

Volume & Turnover

Trading volume spiked during the mid-day selloff, especially between 18:00 and 22:00 ET, as price dropped from $0.0000515 to $0.0000489. This volume confirmed the bearish move. Later in the day, volume decreased significantly as price moved sideways, suggesting a lack of conviction in further declines. Notional turnover mirrored the volume trends, peaking during the sell-off and tapering off as the market consolidated. A divergence between price and volume could suggest a potential reversal, but current data does not support this.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracement levels to the recent 15-minute swing, the pair found support at the 61.8% level ($0.0000489), reinforcing the idea of a key short-term bottom. On the daily chart, retracement levels from a larger bearish move suggest a potential bounce from the 38.2% level if buyers step in. The 50% level lies at a higher point and remains untested in this timeframe. If price breaks below the 61.8% support and closes beneath it, this could signal a deeper correction toward the 78.6% level.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtesting strategy proposes using a combination of RSI (14) and MACD (12, 26, 9) to identify potential entry points in ARBTC. A long signal is triggered when RSI dips below 30 (oversold) and MACD crosses above the signal line, while a short signal occurs when RSI rises above 70 (overbought) and MACD crosses below. Given the current price environment, a long signal may have been triggered earlier in the day when RSI briefly entered oversold territory. However, the lack of sustained volume and follow-through on the bounce suggests that the strategy could struggle to capture profits if used in isolation. Integrating Fibonacci and Bollinger Band levels could improve the robustness of the system, particularly in confirming support and resistance areas before entering a trade.