Market Overview for Artificial Superintelligence Alliance/Tether (FETUSDT) on 2025-10-04

• Price declined from 0.603 to 0.576, breaking key support and forming bearish continuation patterns.
• Momentum weakened with RSI hovering near oversold levels, but MACD showed mixed bearish signals.
• Volatility expanded in late hours, with Bollinger Bands widening as the price approached the lower band.
• Notional turnover increased during breakdown, but volume showed no clear divergence from price action.
• Fibonacci levels suggest possible consolidation near 0.580 and potential resistance at 0.598 in the near term.

The Artificial Superintelligence Alliance/Tether (FETUSDT) pair opened at 0.603 on October 3, 2025, and saw a steady decline over 24 hours, reaching a low of 0.576 by 16:00 ET. The closing price at 12:00 ET was 0.576. Total trading volume amounted to 21,982,281.9 with a notional turnover of $13,315,482. The price action reflected a strong bearish bias with clear signs of rejection above key levels.

Structure & Formations

The price action on the 15-minute chart revealed a series of bearish continuation patterns, including a bearish engulfing candle and a long lower shadow doji forming around 22:30 ET. These signals indicated rejection of higher prices and reinforced the bearish sentiment. Key support levels were tested, particularly at 0.598, 0.592, and finally 0.576, where the price found a temporary floor. A breakdown below 0.598 confirmed the shift in sentiment, with the price continuing its descent toward the final close.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the price broke below both the 20-period and 50-period moving averages, indicating a clear bearish trend. On a daily basis, the 50, 100, and 200-period moving averages were not readily available due to the limited data, but the overall momentum favored the short side. The crossover of the 20 and 50 moving averages on the 15-minute chart confirmed a continuation of the bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD showed bearish divergence in the latter half of the 24-hour period, with the histogram narrowing and the line crossing below the signal line, reinforcing the downward trend. The RSI reached oversold territory around 0.580, but it did not trigger a meaningful bounce, suggesting the bearish pressure was too strong to be reversed by typical overbought/oversold indicators. This combination suggests the downtrend may continue until a stronger reversal signal emerges.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly as the price declined, with the lower band tightening just before the final breakdown. The price closed near the lower band, indicating extreme bearish pressure. The widening bands also reflect increased volatility, particularly in the latter part of the session, as traders reacted to the breakdown of key support levels.

Volume & Turnover

Volume increased during the breakdown around 03:00–06:00 ET, particularly as the price moved below 0.598. This increase in volume confirmed the bearish move rather than indicating a divergence. Notional turnover also spiked during this period, aligning with the price action and reinforcing the strength of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the recent swing high of 0.614 and the subsequent low of 0.576, key levels include 38.2% at 0.599 and 61.8% at 0.587. The price bounced briefly at the 0.599 level before resuming its decline. The 0.587 level is now a potential zone for near-term consolidation or a short-term bounce. However, without strong bullish confirmation, it is likely to be retested.

Backtest Hypothesis

The backtest strategy under consideration involves entering a short position on a confirmed breakdown of a key support level, accompanied by a bearish engulfing pattern and an RSI reading below 30. The target is a 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level from the most recent swing high and low, with a stop-loss placed just above the most recent swing high. This approach aligns with the observed price action and indicator behavior during the 24-hour period, particularly between 03:00 and 06:00 ET. The strategy appears to capitalize on strong bearish momentum and clear support breakdowns, potentially offering a favorable risk/reward profile in the current environment.