Market Overview for Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) – 24-Hour Technical Summary

• Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) closed 1.36% lower at 0.338, after a sharp early drop and a partial recovery.
• Price traded between 0.323 and 0.372, showing a volatile 24-hour range with bearish bias after midday.
• Volume surged in the afternoon before tapering off, while RSI suggests oversold conditions and potential bounce.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the early selloff, then contracted near close, indicating a potential range-bound phase.
• Fibonacci levels at 0.338 (38.2%) and 0.333 (61.8%) are critical near-term support targets.

ARKMUSDT opened at 0.361 on 2025-10-11 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.338 on 2025-10-12 at the same time. The pair hit a 24-hour high of 0.372 and a low of 0.323. Total volume was 15,378,823.9 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $5.18 million. The price action suggests a bearish session, punctuated by a sharp dip early in the evening before a modest rebound.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the past 24 hours reveals a strong bearish trend, starting with a large bearish engulfing pattern from 0.359 to 0.351 on the 15-minute chart. This was followed by a continuation of selling pressure, with a notable drop to 0.323 by 21:15 ET. A bullish reversal is apparent in the final six hours, with a small-bodied candle closing near 0.338. Key support levels appear at 0.338 and 0.333 (38.2% and 61.8% Fibonacci levels), while resistance retested at 0.343 and 0.346.

Moving Averages

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart indicate a bearish crossover trend during the early hours of the session. This bearish bias continued until the final hours, when price managed to rise above the 50-period SMA. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) show a more neutral bias, with price staying below the 50-day line, suggesting a longer-term bearish trend.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained in negative territory for most of the session, only crossing into positive territory near the close, signaling a potential short-term reversal. RSI dropped into oversold territory around 0.323 and has since moved back toward neutral levels (30–45), suggesting a possible bounce. However, RSI has not yet closed above 40, so caution is warranted before assuming a bullish reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility increased significantly during the afternoon selloff, with the Bollinger Bands widening and price touching the lower band. As the session closed, the bands contracted slightly, with price trading near the midpoint. This suggests that the market may be entering a consolidation phase, with potential for either a continuation of bearish momentum or a pullback toward the middle band.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked dramatically during the early selloff, peaking at over 1 million units for a single 15-minute interval. However, the afternoon and evening saw a gradual decline in volume, indicating weakening bearish momentum. Notional turnover remained in line with volume, showing no divergence between price and volume. This supports the view that the recent rally is driven by genuine buying interest rather than a false signal.

Fibonacci Retracements

Recent swings from 0.372 (high) to 0.323 (low) provide key Fibonacci retracement levels at 0.338 (38.2%) and 0.333 (61.8%), both of which were tested near the session's close. These levels appear to be critical in determining short-term direction. A break below 0.333 may lead to further testing of the 0.330–0.327 support zone, while a close above 0.343 would signal a short-term bullish shift.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtesting strategy could involve a mean-reversion approach triggered when RSI falls into oversold territory (< 30) and price closes near the lower Bollinger Band, with a stop-loss placed below the next Fibonacci support level. Given the recent price action and RSI behavior, such a setup may offer a favorable risk/reward profile. A 1.5% stop-loss and a 2.5% target at the 38.2% Fibonacci level could be viable for short-term traders aiming to capture a rebound. This aligns with the observed price structure and confirms the potential for a countertrend bounce.