Market Overview: Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) — 24-Hour Analysis

Summary

• Price fell from 0.324 to 0.306, forming bearish engulfing patterns in early trading.
• RSI hit oversold levels below 30, suggesting potential near-term bounce.
• Late-day volatility spiked, with volume spiking near 1.16M on a sharp 6.7% down move.
• Bollinger Bands show widening, indicating increased short-term uncertainty.
• Doji star and long lower shadows suggest buyers entered at 0.293–0.297.

Opening Narrative

Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) opened at 0.324 on 2025-11-13, dropped to 0.304, and closed at 0.306 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-11-14. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 8.13 million contracts, while notional turnover reached $2.54 million.

Structure & Formations

Price has been consolidating between 0.304 and 0.32, with a bearish trendline from 0.32 to 0.306 now in place. A key support level appears at 0.304, where a long lower shadow and doji star formation suggest a temporary halt to the decline. Resistance near 0.31 is likely to face renewed pressure if buying interest emerges.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period MA is at 0.308, crossing below the 50-period MA, signaling a bearish crossover. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) indicate a prolonged downtrend, with the 50-period MA at 0.312 and the 200-period MA at 0.316, reinforcing bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line is negative and diverging from price as the bearish momentum intensifies. RSI reached 29 on the 15-minute chart, suggesting oversold conditions and a potential short-term bounce. However, divergence between RSI and price during the 0.293–0.297 pullback may hint at weak follow-through buying.

Bollinger Bands

The 20-period Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, with price recently trading near the lower band, at 0.306. This volatility expansion may signal a turning point or increased uncertainty. A move back toward the 0.311 mid-band could confirm a short-term rebound.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked to 1.16 million contracts at 04:45 ET, coinciding with a 6.7% drop from 0.301 to 0.293. Notional turnover rose in tandem. A divergence appears between volume and price, as the most recent uplegs have occurred on weak volume, signaling cautious optimism.

Fibonacci Retracements

Key retracement levels are in play after a 0.324–0.304 move. The 38.2% level at 0.314 and 61.8% at 0.310 have been tested but rejected, suggesting a bearish bias. A break below 0.304 could target the next Fibonacci level at 0.300 for further support.

Backtest Hypothesis

The provided backtest leverages doji stars as reversal signals, with a 1-day holding period and no additional risk controls. While the strategy produced a 25.43% total return, the 17.60% maximum drawdown and 7.9% win rate indicate higher volatility and risk. This aligns with the current oversold RSI and doji star formation near 0.293, suggesting a potential short-term bounce may be testable with such a setup.