Market Overview: Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) 24-Hour Analysis on 2025-10-08

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• Price action drifted lower, closing below the 0.525 support level amid a bearish RSI divergence.• Volatility increased mid-day, with a 1.2% range between high and low, followed by consolidation.• High volume observed near key resistance levels, indicating possible rejection and bearish sentiment.• Bollinger Bands expanded, suggesting potential for a directional move after a contraction phase.• A bearish engulfing pattern formed near the day’s high, signaling short-term pressure and possible bearish continuation.

The Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) pair opened at 0.526 on 2025-10-07 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.525 on the following day at 12:00 ET, with a high of 0.537 and a low of 0.513. Total volume for the 24-hour period was 9,185,701.9, with a notional turnover of approximately $4,696,035.90. The pair displayed a mixed candlestick structure with key bearish and bullish signals.

Under a 15-minute timeframe, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages both drifted lower, with the 50-period line below the 20-period, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period MA crossed below the 100-period and 200-period MA on the daily chart, forming a potential death cross. A clear bearish bias was supported by the RSI falling into oversold territory at 28.2 by the end of the period, while the MACD showed a bearish crossover with the signal line crossing below the zero line.

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly during the day, with price hovering near the lower band most of the time, indicating bearish pressure. The contraction phase preceding the expansion suggested a buildup of volatility. The 0.525–0.527 range acted as a key support/resistance cluster, with price bouncing off this level multiple times. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at 0.533–0.524, signaling potential continuation of the bearish trend.

Fibonacci retracements showed price retreating to the 61.8% level of the prior bullish swing, failing to retest the 78.6% level as a potential reversal zone. On the 15-minute chart, a retest of the 0.523–0.525 area is expected to confirm or reject the continuation of the bearish move. Over the next 24 hours, a break below 0.520 could target 0.515, whereas a rebound above 0.527 may test the 0.531–0.533 resistance cluster. Traders should watch for confirmation via volume and candlestick structure.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the bearish engulfing pattern observed near the high of the day and the RSI divergence pointing to exhaustion in the bullish move, a potential short setup was triggered around 0.533. A backtesting strategy could be designed around this key structure: entering short upon confirmation of the bearish engulfing pattern with a stop just above the pattern’s high (0.534), and targeting the 61.8% Fibonacci level at 0.524. The trailing stop could be set to lock in profits as the trend progresses. This setup was confirmed as the price subsequently moved to 0.524, validating the short-side entry. A similar approach could be backtested using daily and 4-hour charts for confirmation of trend continuation and divergence signals.