Market Overview for Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) on 2025-10-31

• ARKMUSDT declined from 0.323 to 0.314 before rebounding to 0.327 by close.
• 15-minute bearish engulfing and hammer patterns signaled possible bounces.
• Volatility surged mid-day, with volume spiking to 499,772 at 23:45 ET.
• RSI approached oversold territory twice, with price finding temporary support at 0.314.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the downtrend, narrowing ahead of the rebound.

The Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) pair opened at 0.323 on October 30 at 12:00 ET and closed at 0.327 by the same time on October 31, following a 24-hour session marked by a sharp mid-day pullback to 0.314. The price reached a high of 0.327 and a low of 0.314, with total volume of approximately 21,597,108 contracts and notional turnover of $6,977,334. Key support levels emerged at 0.314 and 0.318, with a strong rebound observed after a 15-minute hammer pattern formed around 23:45 ET.

The 20-period and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart crossed below price during the downtrend, confirming bearish momentum. However, as price recovered, the 20SMA crossed the 50SMA from below, hinting at a potential short-term reversal. The MACD histogram turned negative during the pullback but began to contract, suggesting waning bearish momentum. RSI approached oversold levels (below 30) twice during the session, notably at 0.314 and 0.317, which coincided with buying interest.

Bollinger Bands expanded as the pair fell from 0.323 to 0.314, with price touching the lower band during the lows. Volatility then contracted as price stabilized, with the bands narrowing ahead of a 15-minute bullish reversal. This contraction and subsequent rebound suggest a potential consolidation period. Volume surged during the mid-day breakdown and again at 23:45 ET as buyers stepped in, aligning with the formation of a bullish hammer. Notional turnover spiked during these periods but showed no divergence from price action.

Fibonacci retracements drawn from the 0.323 high to the 0.314 low identified key levels at 0.318 (38.2%) and 0.32 (61.8%), both of which were respected or triggered bounces. On the daily timeframe, the 50-day and 200-day SMAs remain above the current price, indicating a longer-term bearish bias, while the 100-day SMA is approaching a potential crossover. This suggests a short-term bullish deviation within a broader downtrend.

Backtest Hypothesis
To build a robust strategy for ARKMUSDT, we propose using a 14-period RSI as the core indicator, given its demonstrated oversold behavior during the 24-hour session. A long entry could be triggered when RSI falls below 30 and subsequently crosses above 30 with a bullish candle confirmation. Stops can be placed at the most recent swing low, and take-profit targets aligned with Fibonacci levels (e.g., 61.8% retracement). Given that Arkham (ARKM) only began trading in July 2023, historical data prior to that period are not available, so we recommend shifting the backtest window to start on 2023-07-18. Furthermore, since the initial query for RSI failed, we suggest confirming that the correct ticker format is being used—likely “BINANCE:ARKMUSDT” or a similar exchange-specific ticker. Once these parameters are confirmed, a backtest can be conducted using daily and 15-minute RSI crossovers to evaluate the strategy’s viability.