Market Overview for Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) – 2025-09-24

• Price action shows a bearish bias early, then a strong reversal and bullish trend toward the close.
• Momentum picked up after 23:00 ET, with RSI suggesting increasing buying pressure.
• Volatility expanded late in the session, with volume surging on the final upward leg.
• Key resistance appears near 0.558, with support levels forming around 0.531 and 0.534.
• Bollinger Bands contracted prior to a breakout, confirming a directional shift in sentiment.

The ARKMUSDT pair opened at 0.552 on 2025-09-23 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 0.564, and a low of 0.531, closing at 0.556 by 12:00 ET the next day. The 24-hour volume amounted to 8,166,599.6 and notional turnover reached 4,316.3 Tether.

Structure & Formations

Price action over the 24-hour period revealed a strong bearish bias early on, with a low of 0.531 at 04:15 ET, followed by a clear bullish reversal and consolidation. A notable bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 09:45–10:00 ET as price pushed past 0.551 and held above it. This was later confirmed by a series of higher highs and closes. A potential support level forming around 0.531–0.534 was tested and respected multiple times, while resistance emerged near 0.558–0.564, coinciding with key psychological and Fibonacci levels.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-EMA crossed above the 50-EMA in the late morning, signaling a bullish crossover. By late afternoon, both moving averages showed an upward trajectory. On the daily chart, the 50-EMA is approaching the 100- and 200-EMA from below, suggesting a possible retest of the longer-term moving averages and a potential bullish trend continuation.

MACD & RSI

The MACD turned positive in the early afternoon and maintained a bullish signal, confirming the recent upswing. The RSI showed a sharp rise from 38 to 64 in the final hours, indicating increased buying momentum. While not yet overbought, the RSI suggests that a short-term correction could be near if this momentum wanes. Divergence was observed in the late night hours, with price making higher lows while RSI made lower lows, signaling a potential short-term pullback.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands contracted significantly between 04:30 and 06:00 ET before a sharp expansion, aligning with the breakout. Price remained within the bands for most of the session, but the recent expansion and closing price near the upper band suggest elevated volatility and bullish continuation pressure.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged to a peak of 808,136.9 at 04:15 ET as price hit a key support level, followed by another spike of 654,405.3 at 10:30 ET during a strong bullish push. Turnover mirrored this with a notable increase during the 10:30–10:45 ET period. Divergence was observed between volume and price during the 04:15–04:30 ET range, with volume increasing while price declined slightly, suggesting a potential bottoming process.

Fibonacci Retracements

Fibonacci retracements applied to the 0.531–0.564 swing identified 0.549 (38.2%) and 0.558 (61.8%) as key levels. Price held above 0.549 for most of the session, with a final test near 16:00 ET. The 0.558 level was approached and briefly exceeded, suggesting possible resistance. On the daily chart, a retracement of the 0.531–0.564 move may provide a short-term target at 0.554, with a 61.8% retracement near 0.546 offering near-term support.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the observed bullish engulfing pattern and the confirmation via moving average crossovers, a backtesting strategy could involve a long entry at the open of the candle following the engulfing pattern, with a stop-loss placed below the 0.531 level. A take-profit target could be set at the 61.8% Fibonacci level of 0.558. This approach aims to capitalize on the continuation of the bullish bias with a favorable risk-reward profile, as supported by the strong volume and RSI divergence during the consolidation phase.