Market Overview for Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) – 2025-09-22

• Price action shows a strong bearish bias after a sharp selloff in early hours.
• Momentum indicators like RSI and MACD signal oversold conditions around 0.538–0.542.
• Volatility surged during the 06:15–08:45 ET window, with a massive volume spike of 4.5 million USD.
• Price found near-term support at 0.54–0.542 and consolidated into a narrow range in the afternoon.
• Bollinger Bands indicate a potential reversal as price approaches the lower band, with potential for a rebound.

At 12:00 ET–1, Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) opened at 0.609, reached a high of 0.613, and a low of 0.520 before closing at 0.541 at 12:00 ET. The total volume over 24 hours was 18,132,703.9, and the notional turnover (amount in USD) was 9,724,166.60. The pair experienced a sharp selloff early in the session, with price dropping below 0.55 and consolidating around the 0.54–0.542 level.

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a strong bearish trend, with a key support level forming around 0.54–0.542 after a sharp decline in the early hours. A bearish engulfing pattern formed at the 0.55–0.520 level, confirming the downward momentum. Later, a bullish reversal pattern (hammer) emerged at 0.532, signaling potential exhaustion in the selloff. The upper resistance area appears to be at 0.555–0.561, while the critical support level remains at 0.54.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages crossed bearishly, reinforcing the downtrend. The daily chart shows the 50-period moving average at 0.575 and the 200-period at 0.595, indicating a long-term bearish bias. Price remains well below both key moving averages.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative during the selloff, with a bearish crossover confirming the downtrend. RSI fell below 30 after the sharp decline, signaling oversold conditions. However, the price remains under pressure as the RSI has not yet shown a clear bullish divergence. Momentum appears to be slowing, but a bounce may not be imminent without a clear break above 0.55.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility expanded significantly during the selloff, with price hitting the lower Bollinger Band at 0.532. This level acted as a temporary support, and price bounced back slightly. The band width widened from 0.001 to 0.022 during the selloff, indicating a potential reversion to the mean.

Volume & Turnover

Volume surged during the selloff, particularly between 06:15 and 08:45 ET, with the largest single 15-minute volume spike at 4,529,528.5 USD. This high volume supported the price drop, showing conviction in the bearish move. Turnover aligned with volume, confirming the strength of the selloff. Divergence between volume and price has not yet emerged, suggesting the bearish trend remains intact for now.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the major 0.611–0.520 swing, key retracement levels are at 0.565 (38.2%), 0.546 (50%), and 0.534 (61.8%). Price has consolidated near 0.54–0.542, just above the 61.8% level, which may offer near-term support. A break below this level could extend the correction to the next 50% level at 0.546.

Backtest Hypothesis

The described backtesting strategy aims to capitalize on short-term mean reversion after a sharp move to the lower Bollinger Band. Using the 15-minute chart, the approach would enter long positions when price retests the lower band and RSI < 30 without breaking critical support. Stop-loss could be placed just below the 0.532 level, with a target near the 50% Fibonacci retracement at 0.546. Given the recent consolidation, this strategy could profit from a short-term bounce if the 0.54–0.542 level holds. However, the bearish bias remains intact, and a breakdown below 0.532 would invalidate the setup.

Forward-Looking View

With price consolidating near 0.54 and the RSI showing oversold conditions, a short-term bounce is possible. However, the bearish momentum is still intact, and a break below 0.532 could lead to further downside. Traders should remain cautious, with stop-loss levels placed below key support zones.