Market Overview for Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) – 2025-09-18

• • •

• ARKMUSDT surged from 0.61 to 0.665 during the 24-hour period, closing near 0.651 at 12:00 ET.
• Strong bullish momentum observed in the late evening, with a 61.8% retracement level holding as support.
• Volatility expanded notably in the early hours of 2025-09-18, aligning with a breakout above prior resistance.
• Notional turnover exceeded $697k as volume spiked during a bullish engulfing pattern near 0.64–0.65.
• RSI signaled overbought conditions midday but failed to confirm a reversal, indicating potential for further upward bias.

Arkham/Tether (ARKMUSDT) opened at 0.61 on 2025-09-17 at 12:00 ET and reached a 24-hour high of 0.665 before closing at 0.651 by 12:00 ET the next day. The pair displayed a strong bullish bias, with price rising by over 16.4% in a volatile 24-hour window. Total volume amounted to approximately 21,316,499.5 units, while notional turnover was estimated at $697,629.97.

Price structure showed key support at the 0.61–0.613 range, which held during early retracements. A bullish engulfing pattern emerged around 21:00–22:00 ET, which helped trigger the upward move. Resistance levels were observed at 0.636 and 0.65, with the latter breaking decisively after a consolidation phase. The 50-period moving average on the 15-minute chart crossed above the 20-period line, suggesting a short-term bullish bias. On the daily chart, the 50-period MA remains below the 200-period, indicating a longer-term neutral to slightly bearish bias.

MACD showed a strong positive divergence during the late evening surge, with the histogram expanding as the bullish trend accelerated. RSI entered overbought territory during the session’s peak but did not show bearish divergence, implying that upward momentum may continue. Bollinger Bands expanded during the breakout phase, suggesting rising volatility and a possible continuation pattern. The price closed just above the upper band, reinforcing the strength of the move.

Fibonacci retracement levels derived from the swing low at 0.61 and the swing high at 0.665 highlighted a 61.8% level at approximately 0.643. The price held above this level, suggesting it may act as dynamic support in the near term. On the daily chart, a 61.8% retracement from the major move from 0.607 to 0.665 is at 0.640, which aligns with recent consolidation levels. Volume and turnover confirmed the price move, with no significant divergence observed.

Backtest Hypothesis
The recent price action aligns with a breakout strategy that triggers long positions on a close above the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level and a bullish engulfing pattern. A stop-loss could be placed below the 0.643 support level, with a first target at the 0.665 swing high and a second at the 0.683 extension. Given the strength of the breakout and confirmation from volume, this setup could have yielded a risk-reward ratio of approximately 1:1.5 if executed on 2025-09-17. Backtesting this strategy over similar historical patterns would help validate its viability across different timeframes and volatility conditions.