Market Overview for Ark/Tether (ARKUSDT) – 2025-09-26

• Price action showed a sharp decline after 16:30 ET, breaking below key support at 0.4125.
• Volatility expanded dramatically post-18:00 ET, with a 2.7% range in a 15-minute window.
• High volume congestion below 0.4075 suggests a potential short-term floor.
• RSI reached oversold territory near 28, signaling potential for a near-term bounce.
• Price closed near 0.4082, 0.95% lower than the prior 24-hour session open.

Ark/Tether (ARKUSDT) opened at 0.4166 on 2025-09-25 12:00 ET and closed at 0.4082 on 2025-09-26 12:00 ET. The 24-hour range was 0.4183 to 0.4045. Total volume amounted to 1,120,881.0, with a notional turnover of $459,912.04.

The price trended lower in a clear downtrend pattern, punctuated by several bearish engulfing patterns after 16:30 ET. A significant drop occurred between 18:00 and 18:15 ET, where price fell from 0.4069 to 0.4027 in a single 15-minute candle. This move confirmed the breakdown of a key support level at 0.4125. Since then, price has found temporary support around 0.4075–0.4076, with a few consolidating candles showing bear flag tendencies.

Key support levels observed include 0.4075 (tested multiple times), 0.4059, and 0.4045. Resistance levels at 0.4101 and 0.4115 are showing repeated rejection in the recovery attempts post 02:45 ET. A doji formed around 03:45 ET near 0.4114, suggesting potential indecision.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages are in a clear downtrend, with the 20-line below the 50-line. On the daily chart (synthetic from 24-hour data), the 50-period MA appears to be approaching 0.4150, which may serve as a pivot for a potential rebound. The 100 and 200-period lines are likely to remain bearish in the near term, adding to the bearish bias.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line has been below the signal line since the morning, with a deep bearish crossover occurring at 01:45 ET. The histogram continues to widen on the bearish side, indicating strong momentum. RSI reached an oversold level of 28 during the early hours of 2025-09-26, hinting at a possible short-term bounce.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands widened significantly after 18:00 ET as volatility increased. Price closed below the lower band at 0.4050, indicating a potential exhaustion of the current downward move. A consolidation phase may follow, with the 0.4075–0.4080 range acting as a potential base for a counter-trend rally.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked during the 18:00–18:15 ET candle, where 108,979 ARK traded. Notional turnover increased correspondingly, confirming the move’s legitimacy. A divergence appears between volume and price during the 02:45–04:15 ET period, with volume declining despite price bouncing. This may indicate weakening short-covering pressure.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci retracements to the 16:30–18:15 ET drop, 0.4075 aligns closely with the 61.8% level, suggesting a potential support. On the daily chart, the 0.4075–0.4080 range corresponds to the 38.2% level of the 24-hour swing, adding to its significance. A break below 0.4045 could target the 61.8% retracement at 0.4020–0.4015.

Backtest Hypothesis

The suggested backtesting strategy involves a short entry on a bearish engulfing pattern with a stop loss placed just above the pattern’s high and a take profit at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level of the preceding bullish swing. In the current context, this would suggest a short entry near 0.4104–0.4107 on or around 17:45–18:00 ET, with a stop at 0.4115 and a target at 0.4075–0.4076. This approach could be integrated into a 15-minute scalping strategy, capitalizing on the strong bearish momentum observed in the past 24 hours.