Market Overview for Arbitrum/Bitcoin (ARBBTC) – October 4, 2025

• Price declined from 3.72e-06 to 3.51e-06 over 24 hours, closing near intraday low.
• Volume spiked at 17:15 ET with a sharp drop to 3.65e-06, suggesting selling pressure.
• Volatility expanded after midday, with price breaking below a key 3.67e-06 support level.
• RSI reached oversold territory late in the session, suggesting potential for a bounce.
• Bollinger Bands widened during the session, indicating a period of heightened uncertainty.

Opening Summary

Arbitrum/Bitcoin (ARBBTC) opened at 3.68e-06 on October 3 at 12:00 ET and closed at 3.51e-06 on October 4 at 12:00 ET, with an intraday high of 3.72e-06 and a low of 3.51e-06. The 24-hour volume amounted to 1,065,000.3 units, with a notional turnover of approximately $3,732.79 (at a USD price of $0.00351 for Bitcoin and $0.00036 for Arbitrum).

Structure & Formations

The price action revealed a bearish continuation pattern, particularly after the 17:15 ET candlestick saw a sharp drop to 3.65e-06. A key support level at 3.67e-06 was breached, and price tested 3.64e-06 and 3.62e-06, with the latter showing limited rebound. A potential bearish engulfing pattern formed around 21:30 ET, followed by a doji at 05:30 ET, indicating indecision. The final close near the session low suggests continued selling pressure.

Moving Averages

On the 15-minute chart, the 20-period and 50-period moving averages were both below the current price, indicating bearish momentum. The 50-period line crossed below the 20-period line during the session, forming a potential death cross. On the daily chart, the 50/100/200 MA lines all pointed lower, reinforcing the bearish bias and the likelihood of further downside.

MACD & RSI

The MACD line turned negative during the late afternoon session and remained below the signal line, confirming bearish momentum. RSI bottomed out near 28 at the close, suggesting the market may be in oversold territory. While this could signal a short-term rebound, the divergence between RSI and price action during the session’s later hours indicates ongoing bearish pressure.

Bollinger Bands

Bollinger Bands expanded significantly in the midday hours, with price dropping to the lower band by early afternoon. The expansion reflects increased volatility and uncertainty in the market. By late evening, the bands began to contract slightly, suggesting a potential consolidation phase. However, the closing price remained near the lower band, reinforcing the bearish sentiment.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked at 17:15 ET with the large bearish candle, confirming the move below 3.67e-06. Later in the session, however, volume declined despite continued price declines, suggesting exhaustion among sellers. Total turnover was unevenly distributed, with the largest notional trade occurring at 17:15 ET. The divergence between price and volume late in the session hints at a potential pullback or consolidation.

Fibonacci Retracements

Applying Fibonacci to the key 3.72e-06 to 3.51e-06 swing, price found temporary support at the 38.2% level (3.64e-06) before retreating further. The 61.8% level (3.57e-06) appears to have acted as a short-term floor late in the session. A break below 3.51e-06 could bring the 61.8% extension (3.47e-06) into play on the next leg down.

Backtest Hypothesis

A potential backtest strategy involves entering a short position on a break below the 3.67e-06 support level, confirmed by a bearish engulfing pattern or a closing candle below the 50-period MA. A stop-loss could be placed above the 3.71e-06 resistance, with a target at the 3.61e-06 and 3.55e-06 Fibonacci levels. This approach leverages both price action and moving average signals for a medium-term bearish bias, aligning with today’s observed dynamics and reinforcing the case for further downside in the near term.