Market Overview: Arbitrum/Bitcoin (ARBBTC) on 2025-12-29

Summary
• Price drifted lower, testing key support levels after an initial consolidation phase.
• Volume surged in early trading, confirming bearish momentum with no significant reversal signs.
• RSI moved into oversold territory, suggesting potential for a near-term bounce or consolidation.
• Bollinger Bands narrowed in the late hours, hinting at possible volatility expansion ahead.

Arbitrum/Bitcoin (ARBBTC) opened at 2.24e-06 on 2025-12-28 at 12:00 ET, reached a high of 2.25e-06, a low of 2.17e-06, and closed at 2.18e-06 as of 12:00 ET on 2025-12-29. The 24-hour volume totaled approximately 938,507.5 units, with a notional turnover of 2.081 BTC.

Structure & Formations

Price action displayed a bearish bias throughout the session, forming multiple small-bodied candles and a key bearish engulfing pattern in the early hours. Support at 2.18e-06 was tested multiple times, with a brief rejection observed in the afternoon. A bullish harami pattern later in the session hinted at potential short-term consolidation.

Moving Averages

On the 5-minute chart, the price closed below both the 20 and 50 EMA, reinforcing the short-term downtrend. While the 50 EMA crossed below the 100 EMA earlier in the day, no clear daily crossover was observed for the 50/200 EMA, suggesting a mixed near-term outlook between intraday and daily timeframes.

MACD & RSI

The MACD remained negative for most of the session, with a bearish crossover observed in the early hours. RSI dropped into oversold territory near the session’s close, indicating a potential pause in the bearish momentum. However, divergence between price and RSI was not significant, reducing the probability of a sharp reversal.

Bollinger Bands

Volatility remained moderate, with Bollinger Bands contracting in the late hours of the session, suggesting a possible build-up for increased volatility in the near term. Price action stayed within the lower band for much of the day, consistent with a bearish trend.

Volume & Turnover

Volume spiked in the early part of the session and again in the mid to late afternoon, confirming bearish continuation. Turnover was well-aligned with price, showing no divergence. High-volume candlesticks were concentrated in key support zones, indicating active short-term positioning.

Fibonacci Retracements

On the 5-minute chart, price tested the 61.8% retracement level of the previous upward swing, failing to hold and continuing lower. Daily retracement levels showed mixed participation, with price finding support near the 38.2% level but failing to break convincingly above it.

The pair may find near-term direction from a retest of the 2.18e-06 support or a break above the 2.21e-06 resistance level. Traders should remain cautious about potential volatility expansion after the observed contraction in Bollinger Bands.