Market Overview: Arbitrum/Bitcoin (ARBBTC) on 2025-10-30

• Price declined sharply from 2.91e-06 to 2.71e-06 amid increased volume.
• Key support at 2.71e-06 held, but bearish momentum persists.
• RSI and MACD signal oversold conditions, suggesting possible rebound.
• Volatility expanded during the drop, with Bollinger Bands widening.

The Arbitrum/Bitcoin (ARBBTC) pair opened at 2.88e-06 at 12:00 ET − 1 and reached a high of 2.93e-06 before falling to a low of 2.71e-06. The 24-hour session closed at 2.71e-06. Total volume was 1.47M units, with a notional turnover of approximately $4.06. Price declined in a bearish wave, with notable bearish engulfing patterns visible in the 15-minute chart, particularly between 18:45 and 19:00 ET.

Price is now testing a key support level at 2.71e-06, which coincides with the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of the recent bullish swing. The 20- and 50-period moving averages on the 15-minute chart are both bearish, with the 50-period line below the 20-period, reinforcing the downward trend. On the daily chart, the 50- and 200-period SMAs are aligned bearishly, indicating a continuation of the larger bearish structure may be likely in the near term.

The MACD appears to be turning lower, confirming bearish momentum. RSI has dropped into oversold territory at 28, suggesting a potential short-term bounce could follow. However, divergence between price and RSI has weakened the strength of the signal. Bollinger Bands have widened significantly, reflecting increased volatility during the sharp decline. Price remains below the lower band, indicating a strong bearish bias for now.

Volume spiked during the sharp sell-off, with the largest single candle at 18:45 ET (211,886.8 units traded), coinciding with the drop from 2.91e-06 to 2.85e-06. This suggests increased distribution activity. Notional turnover also surged during this period, confirming the strength of the bearish move. However, the lack of follow-through selling in the following hours points to diminishing conviction.

Backtest Hypothesis

Given the current bearish momentum and potential oversold conditions, a backtest strategy could be applied to evaluate the effectiveness of a short-term short position triggered by bearish divergence in the RSI and MACD. The strategy would involve entering a short position upon confirmation of a bearish crossover in the MACD and a bearish divergence in RSI below 30, with a stop-loss placed just above the 20-period moving average. A 1-week exit rule would apply to capture potential short-term bearish exhaustion. Historical testing from 2022 to present using a recognized ARBBTC symbol (e.g., including exchange suffixes) would allow for a robust assessment of the signal’s reliability in similar market conditions.