Market Overview for Arbitrum/Bitcoin (ARBBTC) on 2025-09-22

• Arbitrum/Bitcoin declined 9.05% over 24 hours, closing at 3.87e-06, below the opening level of 4.2e-06.
• Price formed a bearish descending triangle pattern, with a key support at 3.85e-06 and resistance at 4.06e-06.
• RSI hit oversold territory (30–35), suggesting potential near-term bounce, though bearish momentum persists.
• Volatility surged during the 06:15–06:30 ET window, with a massive 632k volume spike.
• Turnover declined as price dropped, indicating weak follow-through from sellers.

The 24-hour candle for Arbitrum/Bitcoin (ARBBTC) opened at 4.2e-06 on 2025-09-21 12:00 ET and closed at 3.87e-06 on 2025-09-22 12:00 ET, reaching a high of 4.22e-06 and a low of 3.75e-06. Total volume amounted to 1,290,137.09 units, with a notional turnover of 4.92 BTC, indicating aggressive selling during the downward phase.

Structure and formations reveal a clear bearish bias, with price consolidating in a descending triangle from 4.2e-06 to 3.85e-06. A key support is forming around 3.85e-06, with a potential bounce zone near 3.87e-06. A bearish engulfing pattern emerged at 02:45–03:00 ET, confirming the short-term bearish momentum. A doji formed at 05:45–06:00 ET, suggesting indecision before the sharp drop.

Short-term 15-minute moving averages (20/50) are bearishly aligned, with the 50-period MA below the 20-period MA and both tracking downward. Daily moving averages (50/100/200) are also bearish, with price well below all. The 20-period MA sits at 4.05e-06, and the 50-period at 3.97e-06, both acting as overhead resistance for any potential rallies.

MACD is in negative territory, with the histogram expanding during the 06:15–06:30 ET window, confirming bearish momentum. RSI dipped below 30, signaling oversold conditions and hinting at a possible countertrend bounce, though without a clear reversal pattern, this should be treated with caution. Bollinger Bands show a wide expansion during the sharp decline, indicating increased volatility. Price is currently near the lower band, suggesting further downside pressure could be limited without a retest of key support levels.

Volume was relatively subdued during the upward attempts but surged during the major sell-off starting at 06:15 ET, with a massive 632,215.8 volume spike. This confirms bearish conviction during the downward move. Turnover declined after the drop, indicating reduced buyer interest and limited follow-through from sellers. Divergence between volume and price suggests a potential exhaustion in the current bearish trend, though confirmation is still pending.

Fibonacci retracement levels for the recent 15-minute swing from 4.22e-06 to 3.75e-06 place key levels at 38.2% (3.99e-06), 50% (3.985e-06), and 61.8% (3.97e-06). The 61.8% level is now a critical support zone. Daily Fibonacci levels for the broader move show 3.85e-06 as a key psychological level.

Backtest Hypothesis
The described backtesting strategy targets oversold RSI levels (below 30) combined with volume confirmation and Bollinger Band contractions as potential reversal entry points. Given the recent RSI reading near 30 and price at the lower Bollinger Band, a long bias could be considered for a bounce off 3.85e-06, with a stop below this level. A take-profit target could be placed at the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement level (3.97e-06). The strategy would need a minimum of 3–5 such setups over a month for statistical significance. This aligns with the current technical setup but should be used with caution given the strong bearish momentum.