Market Overview for Aptos/Yen (APTJPY): Volatile 24-Hour Move with Key Reversals

• APTJPY surged from 764.5 to 818.5, then corrected sharply to 759.0 by close, showing strong intraday volatility.
• Momentum shifted multiple times with overbought RSI levels and bearish reversal patterns near key resistance.
• Volume spiked during early-morning rally and late-afternoon decline, confirming price extremes.
• Bollinger Band expansion during peak volatility and retracement levels defined critical support/resistance clusters.

Aptos/Yen (APTJPY) opened at 787.1 on 2025-10-03 12:00 ET and reached a high of 818.5 before closing at 759.0 at 2025-10-04 12:00 ET. Total volume was 12,585.94, and notional turnover was 10,258,638.8 Yen.

Over the 24-hour period, APTJPY showed a distinct three-phase structure: an aggressive morning rally to 818.5, a consolidation phase around 800.0, and a late afternoon–early morning sharp bearish reversal to 759.0. The price action formed bearish engulfing and evening star patterns during the 4–7 AM ET time frame, signaling exhaustion in the bullish momentum. Key support levels were identified around 776.4–790.3, and resistance was tested repeatedly between 800.0 and 818.5. The 20-period and 50-period moving averages (15-minute) crossed over multiple times, suggesting short-term indecision, while the daily 50/100/200 moving averages were not fully available, though the price moved below 800.0—possibly indicating a short-term bearish bias.

MACD showed a bullish divergence during the morning rally, with the histogram expanding positively before reversing sharply. RSI reached overbought levels above 70 and then collapsed into oversold territory below 30 by the close. This suggests strong conviction in both bullish and bearish phases. Bollinger Bands expanded during the morning and late-night sessions, indicating high volatility. During the consolidation phase, the price stayed within the band, suggesting lower volatility and indecision. Volume and turnover aligned with price extremes, with large-volume uplegs and bearish selloffs, confirming the strength of both moves.

Fibonacci retracement levels of 61.8% (787.6) and 78.6% (776.0) appeared to act as strong support during the pullback phase, while the 38.2% retracement (802.4) was a key resistance that was broken but failed to hold. These levels could remain relevant in the coming 24 hours.

Backtest Hypothesis: A potential trading strategy could involve entering short positions on a bearish engulfing pattern confirmed by volume spikes and RSI divergence into overbought territory, with stops above key resistance (e.g., 799.3–800.4) and targets aligned with 776.4–764.5. This approach aligns with observed intraday behavior and Fibonacci support levels.